Overall against the spread: 78-63
Conference: 1-1
Divisional: 3-1
Wildcard: 3-1
Week 17: 8-8
Week 16: 11-4
Week 15: 7-9
Week 14: 6-9
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 8-6
Week 11: 9-5
Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

Here’s my Super Bowl prediction, with the current line in parentheses:
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-1.0): Predicting 23.6-22.0. Bet on the New England Patriots.

I watched it. Still don’t understand it. Advanced Football Analytics has a great breakdown of the win probability model and how it went so bad for Green Bay.

Ignore the failures of Green Bay in scoring TDs in the first half. Ignore the fake-field goal TD for Seattle. All GB had to do was
-Stop Seattle’s drive when the score was 19-7
OR
-Get some first downs to kill the clock
OR
-Stop Seattle’s drive when the score was 19-14
OR
-Stop the hail mary two point conversion
OR
-Score a TD instead of a FG when score was 19-22
OR
-Win the coin toss
OR
-Stop Seattle’s drive in overtime

Any of the above.

Insane hail mary two point conversion. How does this work?

Overall against the spread: 77-62
Divisional: 3-1
Wildcard: 3-1
Week 17: 8-8
Week 16: 11-4
Week 15: 7-9
Week 14: 6-9
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 8-6
Week 11: 9-5
Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

Here are my division round predictions, with the current line in parentheses:
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5): Predicting 21.4-25.0. Bet on the Green Bay Packers.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5): Predicting 22.8-27.9. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.

Overall against the spread: 74-61
Wildcard: 3-1
Week 17: 8-8
Week 16: 11-4
Week 15: 7-9
Week 14: 6-9
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 8-6
Week 11: 9-5
Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

Here are my division round predictions, with the current line in parentheses:
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7.0): Predicting 20.8-26.1. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-11.0): Predicting 15.9-25.3. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6.5): Predicting 24.4-28.7. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7.0): Predicting 24.2-29.0. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.

My model says the lines are all too high, which was my intuition when looking at them. It’s only Monday though, maybe they’ll move down by game time. I would bet on the home teams if the lines were -5, -9, -4, and -4.5, respectively.

Eric. Bengals Fan.
Maria. Colts Fan.

Rematch, Sunday 1pm, in Indy. Round 1, week 7, did not go super well for the Bengals.

Vegas has the line at Colts -3.5. My model says that is a little low. Bengals are super unpredictable though, so who knows.

I would like to see a Cincinnati team win a playoff game/series for the first time since 1995. That would be nice.

Come watch it with us.

Eric
I finished my regular season 10-3, in first place in my league, despite scoring only the 6th most points in my 12 team league. I had the fewest points scored against me. I got a bye in the playoffs, won my first matchup, and lost (in excruciating fashion 74-73) in the finals. So a 2nd place finish.

I won in spite of my awful draft. My first 5 picks in my snake-draft (with the last pick in the first round): Doug Martin, Montee Ball, Keenan Allen, Vincent Jackson, Trent Richardson. All busts. I did some fancy maneuvering to put myself in a position to win each week. I made 4 of the approximately 7-8 trades in my league. My final roster included only 3 players that I drafted (Emmanuel Sanders (6th round), Jeremy Hill (10th), and Trent Richardson (5th)). My final roster included Matthew Stafford (traded Kaepernick for Stafford), Jeremy Hill, Boom Herron (free agent), Odell Beckham Jr (traded Zach Ertz for Beckham, great trade), Emmanuel Sanders, Kenny Stills (free agent), Deandre Hopkins (complicated 3 for 3 trade), Dwayne Allen (complicated 3 for 3 trade), and Dan Bailey. I plug and play at Defense.

Maria
Maria was the 2 time defending champion in her league. This year, she was 1st in her regular season, going 10-4 with the most points in her league. She had a tough week in the first week of her playoffs and lost, however. She won the 3rd place game the next week to finish in third place. Her league is an auction draft that allows for up to 5 keepers each year. She has some great keeper options for next year, including:
Relatively expensive options: Peyton Manning, Antonio Brown, Arian Foster
Very cheap options: Kelvin Benjamin, Deandre Hopkins, Christine Michael, Devonta Freeman, Bishop Sankey, Kenny Stills, Jordan Reed, Boom Herron, and Alfred Blue

Altogether, a pretty successful year. Always frustrating to lose in the playoffs, though.

Overall against the spread: 71-60
Week 17: 8-8
Week 16: 11-4
Week 15: 7-9
Week 14: 6-9
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 8-6
Week 11: 9-5
Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

0-3 in games highlighted last week. 11-16 overall. Well, that experiment proved not too promising. I was hoping that I would be able to pick the best games to bet on. But my model, used in every game, vastly outperformed my choice of which 3 games to bet on each week. So I’ll stop highlighting games to bet on in the future.

Here are my wildcard predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-7.0): Predicting 19.3-20.6. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0): Predicting 23.2-25.1. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5): Predicting 21.4-26.5. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-8.0): Predicting 19.1-24.9. Bet on the Detroit Lions.

Overall against the spread: 63-52
Week 16: 11-4
Week 15: 7-9
Week 14: 6-9
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 8-6
Week 11: 9-5
Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

1-2 in games highlighted last week. 11-13 overall.

Here are my week 16 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.0): Predicting 21.2-26.6. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5): Predicting 16.7-25.1. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5): Predicting 18.6-25.4. Bet on the Detroit Lions.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-9.5): Predicting 14.4-25.7. Bet on the Houston Texans.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.0): Predicting 18.7-23.9. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6.5): Predicting 17.3-26.5. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5): Predicting 19.8-26.8. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-5.0): Predicting 18.7-26.8. Bet on the New England Patriots.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2.5): Predicting 26.1-26.6. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5): Predicting 22.1-26.1. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.0): Predicting 23.9-23.2. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+6.5): Predicting 27.6-21.0. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+3.5): Predicting 26.4-21.6. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5): Predicting 16.4-25.4. Bet on the St Louis Rams.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.0): Predicting 17.9-31.4. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7.0): Predicting 18.3-19.3. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Falcons, Dolphins, Raiders