As described here, I have an NFL betting model that won enough bets over the last 33 years to break a profit, even if you bet on every game. I’ve been lazy and haven’t fit the model to predict weeks 2-8 this season, but I have it up and running for week 9. Here are my predictions, with the current line in parentheses:
Chargers at Dolphins (-1): Predicting 22.4-23.4. Line is correct; don’t bet.
Jaguars at Bengals (-11.5): Predicting 16.5-26.2. Bet on the Jaguars.
Buccaneers at Browns (-7): Predicting 18.4-29.1. Bet on the Browns
Redskins at Vikings (even): Predicting 19.4-22. Bet on the Vikings.
Eagles at Texans (even): Predicting 22.8-24.4. Bet on the Texans.
Jets at Chiefs (-10.5): Predicting 15.3-28.9. Bet on the Chiefs.
Cardinals at Cowboys (-3): Predicting 20.8-24. Bet on the Cowboys, barely.
Rams at 49ers (-10.5): Predicting 15.3-28.9. Bet on the 49ers.
Broncos at Patriots (+2.5): Predicting 26.9-26.9 (should be an awesome game). Bet on the Patriots.
Raiders at Seahawks (-15.5): Predicting 15.7-26.5. Bet on the Raiders.
Ravens at Steelers (even): Predicting 24.3-21.9. Bet on the Ravens.
Colts at Giants (+3): Predicting 26.9-24.3. Bet on the Giants, barely.
Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Raiders, Browns, Patriots