Category Archives: Research

Paper Published – Digital Nudging: Numeric and Semantic Priming in E-Commerce

Joint work with Alan Dennis, Linghao (Ivy) Yuan, Xuan Feng, and Christine Hsieh. Published in the Journal of Management Information Systems: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07421222.2019.1705505

Abstract: Most research on e-commerce has focused on deliberate rational cognition, yet research in psychology and marketing suggests that buying decisions may also be influenced by priming (a form of what Information Systems researchers have called digital nudging). We conducted seven experiments to investigate the impact of two types of priming (numeric priming and semantic priming) delivered through what appeared to be advertisements on an e-commerce website. We found that numeric priming had a small but significant effect on consumers’ willingness to pay when the value of the product was unclear, but had no effect when products displayed a manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) or a fixed selling price. Semantic priming had larger effects on willingness to pay and the effects were significant but smaller in the presence of an MSRP. Thus, the combination of numeric and semantic priming has a larger impact on consumers’ willingness to pay. Taken together, these experiments show that some of the research on numeric priming and semantic priming done in offline settings generalizes to e-commerce settings, but there are important boundary conditions to their effects in e-commerce that have not been noted in offline settings. In online auctions (e.g., eBay), sellers can influence customers to pay more for products whose value is unclear by displaying products with clearly labelled high prices alongside the products the consumer searched for. However, such tactics will have only minimal effects for auctions of products whose price is known (e.g., those with an MSRP) and no effects on products with clearly listed prices (e.g., Amazon).

Paper Published – Incentive‐Compatible Prehospital Triage in Emergency Medical Services

Joint work with Alex Mills. Forthcoming in Production and Operations Management: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/poms.13036

Abstract: The Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system is designed to handle life-threatening emergencies, but a large and growing number of non-emergency patients are accessing hospital-based healthcare through EMS. A national survey estimated that 17% of ambulance trips to hospital Emergency Departments (EDs) were medically unnecessary, and that these unnecessary trips make up an increasing proportion of all EMS trips. These non-emergency patients are a controllable arrival stream that can be re-directed to an appropriate care provider, reducing congestion in EDs, reducing costs to patients and healthcare payers, and improving patient health, but prehospital triage to identify these patients is almost never implemented by EMS providers in the United States. Using a decision model, we show that prehospital triage is unlikely to occur under the current structure of fee-for-service reimbursements, regardless of how effective the triage process might be, unless low-acuity patients are unprofitable and a hospital is willing to coordinate with EMS. We demonstrate several mechanisms a payer such as Medicare could use to promote prehospital triage: reforming fee-for-service reimbursements or offering a value-based payment, such as bundled payments or shared savings contracts. Using data from a national survey and levels of triage effectiveness demonstrated in the literature, we conservatively estimate that Medicare alone could save between $3 and $70 million per year (depending on triage effectiveness) by providing incentives for prehospital triage. Between 26,500 and 628,000 non-emergency patients could be diverted to more appropriate care options, making prehospital triage a practical step to address hospital emergency department crowding.

Strength of March Madness Teams

Similar to last year and the year before and the year before that, I will run my NFL model over NCAA men’s basketball teams to show the strength of each team. The model predicts how many more points a team will score than the “average” team, along with how many more points they will give up on defense. The model is only based on the final scores of games during the season and conference tournaments. Positive numbers are good for Offensive strength. Negative numbers are good for defensive strength. My model does not discount (late season runs matter no more than early season victories) and does not account for injuries.

Some things to note:
1. 6 tournament teams are worse than an NCAA Division 1 average team.
2. The top 8 teams are within 5 expected points of each other.
3. My model says Xavier is only the 11th best team, deserving of a 3 seed. Chronically under-seeded West Virginia is a 5 seed deserving to be a 3 seed. Virginia’s offense is below average, but their defense is preposterous (7 points better than 2nd best Cincinnati). Villanova has the best offense, but Oklahoma is right behind them.
4. The best teams not to make the tournament are Penn State (14.0 points above average), Baylor (13.7), Louisville (13.7), and Notre Dame (13.5).
5. Creighton, Butler, and Arizona State deserved seeds that were 3 better.
6. Miami and Rhode Island deserved seeds that were at least 3 worse.

Heading to the University of Cincinnati This Fall

After an exhausting job search, I’m happy to announce that I will be heading to the University of Cincinnati this fall, after accepting a job as Assistant Professor in the Operations, Business Analytics, and Information Systems (OBAIS) Department of the Lindner College of Business.

UC has a great department, with strong researchers and incredible people. I look forward to contributing my research in energy operations management and behavioral operations to their research portfolio, as well as teaching classes in simulation, sports analytics, service operations, and other topics in operations management and business analytics. A new building for the business school is under construction, set to open in Fall 2019.

It’s been a busy 4+ months. My main interview conference (INFORMS) was in October this year, pushing up the job search cycle a bit. I had flyouts in November, December, and January, and chose between offers over the last couple weeks.

Here is a summary of my job search process:
-I applied to 76 schools. In retrospect, I should have been a bit more selective, but applying is free and relatively quick.
-I received 28 first-round interview invitations, one of which I did not accept due to it being too late in the process. 18 of the interviews were in-person and held at INFORMS. The rest were either by phone or Skype.
-From those 27 accepted interviews, I was invited to 8 campus fly-outs. 1 occurred in November, 3 were in December, and 4 were scheduled for January. I had to cancel the last fly-out, due to receiving attractive offers and the visit occurring too late.
-From those 7 campus visits, I received 3 job offers.
-Today, I accepted UC’s offer.

It was great to meet so many members of my field during the search process. And thanks so much to my family, friends, and co-workers who helped guide and advise me during the process.

Book Review – Everybody Lies

Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are
by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, 2017

The premise of the book is that people lie on surveys, but their behavior online (when they think no one is watching) reveals their true beliefs and actions. By analyzing Google search data, the author uncovers insights into racist behavior, differences in the way sons and daughters are treated, and how many people finish the books they buy. Disparate data sources, including first-person observations of markets in poor countries, Twitter Tweets, and even Pornhub data round out the book.

As a sports fan, one of the most interesting topics the book touched on was the origin of lifetime fandom. Using Facebook “likes” of baseball teams, the author finds that boys are much more likely to become lifetime fans of their hometown team if the team was very successful when the boy was about 8 years old. (Side note: the Reds were really good, but not World Series champs, in ’94 and ’95, for me). For girls, the formative age is more like 22.

I listened to the book on tape, which was well-read. I found the section on abortions to be particularly disturbing, and I skipped it. The book does not “pull any punches” with respect to language use or topic choice.

My INFORMS 2017 Presentations

Sunday, 8:00-9:30am, SA37, Linking Delay Announcements, Abandonment, and Staffing: A Behavioral Perspective, Room 352B

Monday, 8:00-9:30am, MA04, Mind The Gap: Coordinating Energy Efficiency and Demand Response, Room 320A

Tuesday, 4:35-6:05pm, TE04, Utility Ownership of Decentralized Combined Heat and Power, Room 320A

The two energy papers of my dissertation were invited. The call center paper was scheduled for presentation with the other finalists in the in the Service Section Best Student Paper Competition.

Talks I Attended at MSOM 2017

Documented mostly for my future reference.

-Peak Load Energy Management by Direct Load Control Contracts, by Ali Fattahi, Sriram Dasu, Reza Ahmadi
-Is electricity storage green? A study on the commercial sector, by Yangfang Zhou (Helen)
-Promotion Planning of Network Goods, by Saed Alizamir, Ningyuan Chen, Vahideh Manshadi

-Seeking to Belong, by Bradley Staats, Paul Green, Francesca Gino
-Familiarity in Creative Teams: The Effect of Task Nature, by Murat Unal, Karthik Ramachandran, Necati Tereyagoglu
-Designing Sustainable Products under Co-Production Technology, by Yen-Ting Lin, Shouqiang Wang, Haoying Sun

-That’s Not Fair – Tariff Structures for Electricity Markets with Rooftop Solar, by Siddharth Prakash Singh, Alan Scheller-Wolf
-Mind the Gap: Coordinating Energy Efficiency and Demand Response, by Eric Webb, Owen Wu, Kyle Cattani
-Using Transparency to Manage the Sourcing of Complex Non-routine Litigation, by Jacob Chestnut, Damian Bell

-Environmentally Friendly Contract in a Supply Chain: Stimulating Supplier’s Environmental Innovation for a Manufacturer under Emission Tax, by Kun Soo Park
-Multi-agent Mechanism Design without Money, by Santiago Balseiro, Huseyin Gurkan, Peng Sun
-Payment for Results: Funding Non-Profit Operations, by Sripad Devalkar, Milind Sohoni, Neha Sharma

-Designing Incentives for Startup Teams: Form and timing of Equity Contracting, by Evgeny Kagan, Stephen Leider, William Lovejoy
-Integrating Managerial Insight and Optimal Algorithms, by Blair Flicker, Elena Katok
-Modeling Newsvendor Behavior: A Prospect Theory Approach, by Bhavani Shanker Uppari, Sameer Hasija

-Last Place Aversion in Queue, by Ryan Buell, Michael Norton, Jay Chakraborty
-Learning Preferences and User Engagement Using Choice and Time Data, by Tauhid Zaman, Zhengli Wang
-Relative Performance Transparency: Effects on Sustainable Purchase and Consumption Behavior, by Ryan Buell, Shwetha Mariadassou, Yanchong Zheng

Successfully Passed Proposal Defense

A week ago, I passed my dissertation proposal defense. I proposed two essays in energy operations management for my dissertation. I will have to defend the thesis writeup next spring. Thanks to my committee: Owen Wu, Gil Souza, Kyle Cattani, and Kurt Bretthauer, and to the external members of my examination committee: John Maxwell and Shibo Li.

Finalist for POMS College of Sustainable Operations Best Student Paper

Kyle Cattani, one of my co-authors, was left off the original announcement. I have added him below.

Announcement sent out via Tim Kraft and Yannis Bellos:

On behalf of the awards committee, we are pleased to congratulate the finalist for the 2017 POMS College of Sustainable Operations Best Student Paper Competition. The finalist in alphabetical order are:

Karthik Balasubramanian (Harvard Business School)
Inventory Models for Mobile Money Agents in the Developing World
Co-author: David Drake

Eric Webb (Indiana University)
Mind the Gap: Coordinating Energy Efficiency and Demand Response
Coauthor: Owen Wu, Kyle Cattani

Can Zhang (Georgia Tech)
Truth-inducing Mechanisms for Medical Surplus Product Allocation
Coauthors: Atalay Atasu, Turgay Ayer, Beril Toktay

The winning paper will be announced during the College of Sustainable Operations business meeting on Saturday, May 6th at this year’s POMS Annual Conference in Seattle. Thank you to all those who submitted. We had a record number of entries this year with 24 submissions, all of which were of high quality.