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NFL Picks- Week 11 of 2014

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Predictions from Week 10.

Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

1-2 in games highlighted last week. 3-3 overall.

Here are my week 11 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.0): Predicting 18.4-24.7. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-1.0): Predicting 24.3-24.7. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3.0): Predicting 22.5-23.0. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.0): Predicting 19.4-22.9. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-5.5): Predicting 25.6-28.6. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (even): Predicting 19.1-24.3. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-8.0): Predicting 21.7-27.9. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (+4.0): Predicting 22.5-23.1. Bet on the New York Giants.
Denver Broncos at St Louis Rams (+10.5): Predicting 29.3-21.8. Bet on the St Louis Rams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-8.5): Predicting 20.0-28.2. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-11.5): Predicting 17.1-27.1. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-1.0): Predicting 17.1-21.2. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Predicting 26.2-29.5. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+7.0): Predicting 24.2-21.8. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Cardinals, Giants, Titans

Upcoming Sports Open Houses

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In case you haven’t checked it out, look at the Sport Open House schedule. Let me know if you’ll be coming by for one of the upcoming events:

Friday, 11/14/14: US vs Colombia, soccer friendly, 2:45pm
Sunday, 11/16/14: Patriots at Colts, 8pm
Tuesday, 11/18/14: Kentucky vs Kansas, 9pm
Wednesday, 11/19/14: Spurs at Cavaliers, 7pm
Sunday, 11/30/14: Redskins at Colts, 1pm and Kentucky vs Providence, 2pm
Tuesday, 12/2/14: Indiana vs Pittsburgh, 7pm and Pacers at Suns, 9pm
Friday, 12/5/14: Kentucky vs Texas, 7pm and Pacers at Kings, 10pm
Sunday, 12/7/14: Colts at Browns, 1pm
Tuesday, 12/9/14: Indiana vs Louisville, 9pm
Saturday, 12/20/14: North Carolina vs Ohio State, 1pm and Indiana vs Butler, 2:30pm and Kentucky vs UCLA, 3:30pm

Some awesome matchups, especially those basketball games on 12/20. Stop by.

Book Review- How to Measure Anything

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How to Measure Anything, 2nd Edition
by Douglas Hubbard, 2010

how-to-measure-anything

This book is of value to anyone in a decision making role. It details the steps necessary to… ahem… measure anything. It is written from a PRACTICAL standpoint of asking questions and performing basic statistics to determine what actually matters to a decision.

Even with a strong decision science and statistical background, I found the way this book framed questions and thought-processes to be refreshing. Too often we delve so deeply into the math of the problem that we forget how to frame the question initially. So while the math wasn’t new at all to me, I found it’s presentation useful. I think other PhD students and professors would benefit from this book as well.

Here is the method the book suggests when deciding what (and how much) to measure to aid in making a decision:
1. Define the decision and the variables that matter to it. If you can’t define a decision that will be affected by your question/measurement, then it doesn’t matter.
2. Model the current state of uncertainty about those variables. This typically involves querying experts to get their confidence intervals on the variables of interest. Experts should be calibrated in providing accurate confidence intervals before beginning.
3. Compute the value of additional measurements. This aids in determining which variables have confidence intervals that are too wide to make a decision right now. Typically, only a couple variables require ANY measurement in a decision, and they are not necessarily the variables that decision makers would normally try to measure.
4. Measure the high-value uncertainties in a way that is economically justified. Measure in an iterative manner, starting with a small study. You will often need less information than you think to shrink a confidence interval to an acceptable range.
5. Make a risk/return decision after the economically justified amount of uncertainty is reduced. You will have adequate information at this stage to make your decision. Does the reward expected from the decision justify its risk for your organization?

You should read the book. That said, the book is not perfect. It messes up a couple mathematical topics in its exposition. It can be very dry and boring in places, even for someone used to reading statistical prose. I think its benefits outweigh its drawbacks, however.

NFL Picks- Week 10 of 2014

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Predictions from Week 9.
Week 9: 6-6
Among games highlighted: 2-1

Here are my week 10 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Browns at Bengals (-7): Predicting 24.1-20.8. Bet on the Browns.
Cowboys at Jaguars (+7): Predicting 24.6-19.9. Bet on the Jags.
Titans at Ravens (-10.5): Predicting 15.5-27.4. Bet on the Ravens.
Chiefs at Bills (+1): Predicting 21.5-20.9. Bet on the Bills.
Dolphins at Lions (-2.5): Predicting 19.5-19.5. Bet on the Dolphins.
49ers at Saints (-5): Predicting 21.3-26.8. Bet on the Saints.
Steelers at Jets (+4.5): Predicting 27.1-22.3. Bet on the Steelers.
Falcons at Bucs (even): Predicting 26.3-24.6. Bet on the Falcons.
Broncos at Raiders (+12.5): Predicting 28-20.8. Bet on the Raiders.
Rams at Cardinals (-8): Predicting 16.8-27.7. Bet on the Cards.
Giants at Seahawks (-10.5): Predicting 20.6-26.5. Bet on the Giants.
Bears at Packers (-8): Predicting 21.9-30. Bet on the Packers, barely.
Panthers at Eagles (-7): Predicting 18.6-29.6. Bet on the Eagles.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Giants, Cardinals, Steelers

Two Links Tuesday- November 4, 2014- Royals Edition

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No, not the Lorde song. Though it was hilarious that a San Francisco station banned the song during the World Series.

Kansas-CIty-Royals

In case you weren’t aware, the Royals lost to the Giants in Game 7 of the World Series, thus compiling the best postseason record ever for a team that DIDN’T win the World Series: 11-4. While I’m not a Royals fan, I was certainly rooting against the Giants.

1. Should the Royals have sent Gordon?: Game 7, Royals losing 3-2 in the bottom of the ninth, 2 outs, no one on base. Gordon hits a single to center that is misplayed and rolls to the wall. Gordon rounds second and is pulling into third as the ball is retrieved and thrown to the shortstop in shallow left. I think the Royals should have sent Gordon home and demanded a play at the plate. While it would have been sad to get thrown out at home, I thought there was a great chance he makes it (slow relay, poor throw, not caught at home), and I also thought that Bumgarner was killing it on the mound and would get the last out if he was stuck at third (which he did). This link suggests a 30% chance of success means he should have been sent home. I think he had that. Other sites disagree.

2. Pain Demands to be Felt: Cleveland fans are nodding. Great article.

NFL Picks- Week 9 of 2014

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As described here, I have an NFL betting model that won enough bets over the last 33 years to break a profit, even if you bet on every game. I’ve been lazy and haven’t fit the model to predict weeks 2-8 this season, but I have it up and running for week 9. Here are my predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Chargers at Dolphins (-1): Predicting 22.4-23.4. Line is correct; don’t bet.
Jaguars at Bengals (-11.5): Predicting 16.5-26.2. Bet on the Jaguars.
Buccaneers at Browns (-7): Predicting 18.4-29.1. Bet on the Browns
Redskins at Vikings (even): Predicting 19.4-22. Bet on the Vikings.
Eagles at Texans (even): Predicting 22.8-24.4. Bet on the Texans.
Jets at Chiefs (-10.5): Predicting 15.3-28.9. Bet on the Chiefs.
Cardinals at Cowboys (-3): Predicting 20.8-24. Bet on the Cowboys, barely.
Rams at 49ers (-10.5): Predicting 15.3-28.9. Bet on the 49ers.
Broncos at Patriots (+2.5): Predicting 26.9-26.9 (should be an awesome game). Bet on the Patriots.
Raiders at Seahawks (-15.5): Predicting 15.7-26.5. Bet on the Raiders.
Ravens at Steelers (even): Predicting 24.3-21.9. Bet on the Ravens.
Colts at Giants (+3): Predicting 26.9-24.3. Bet on the Giants, barely.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Raiders, Browns, Patriots

Book Review- We’ll Always Have Paris: Stories

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We’ll Always Have Paris: Stories
by Ray Bradbury, 2009

we'll always have paris

This is a series of short stories, written by Ray Bradbury, of Fahrenheit 451 fame. Unfortunately, I was fairly repelled by this collection. Too many of them had odd, “in the closet” homosexual underpinnings for my taste. There were a handful that were interesting, including “The Twilight Greens” and “Remembrance, Ohio”, but not enough to justify the duds. I’d recommend many of Bradbury’s other books, but not necessarily this one.

I listened to these stories via CD while driving to/from work.

Two Links Tuesday- October 28, 2014

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Coder’s High: Article by a current writer/former coder about being immersed in coding to the extent that you can block out the world. I’ve done that on occasion and made some really complex code. Now I’m more practical and use the same coding strategy over and over again (for similar problems), which means I don’t get into that high as often.

How the Other Half Works, an Adventure in the Low Status of Software Engineers: Stuff to think about if you’re a technical worker and looking to position yourself in the workforce.

Code Monkey Monday- Math Mode in Microsoft Word

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If you write in LaTeX (or can learn), you’re well-equipped to write mathematical equations in newer versions of Microsoft Word. I have Word 2010 installed on my computer. To enter math mode, hold down the Alt key and hit the “=” key. Math mode accepts LaTeX-like formulas. It is slightly better than LaTeX as well, because you can see exactly how your equation will look as you type it. Whenever you’ve finished typing a complicated symbol or function and want it to display, just hit spacebar. You can click outside the math mode box or type Alt+= again to exit math mode.

Here’s an example. In math mode, type “\int_0^24 \lambda(t) dt” to get an integral that looks like \int_0^{24} \lambda(t) dt. This saves you from having to find and click on all the suggested symbols in Word to get an equation you want.

Thanks to Alex Mills for this suggestion.

Remember that you can also use LaTeX in WordPress blog posts.