Predictions from Week 9.
Week 9: 6-6
Among games highlighted: 2-1

Here are my week 10 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Browns at Bengals (-7): Predicting 24.1-20.8. Bet on the Browns.
Cowboys at Jaguars (+7): Predicting 24.6-19.9. Bet on the Jags.
Titans at Ravens (-10.5): Predicting 15.5-27.4. Bet on the Ravens.
Chiefs at Bills (+1): Predicting 21.5-20.9. Bet on the Bills.
Dolphins at Lions (-2.5): Predicting 19.5-19.5. Bet on the Dolphins.
49ers at Saints (-5): Predicting 21.3-26.8. Bet on the Saints.
Steelers at Jets (+4.5): Predicting 27.1-22.3. Bet on the Steelers.
Falcons at Bucs (even): Predicting 26.3-24.6. Bet on the Falcons.
Broncos at Raiders (+12.5): Predicting 28-20.8. Bet on the Raiders.
Rams at Cardinals (-8): Predicting 16.8-27.7. Bet on the Cards.
Giants at Seahawks (-10.5): Predicting 20.6-26.5. Bet on the Giants.
Bears at Packers (-8): Predicting 21.9-30. Bet on the Packers, barely.
Panthers at Eagles (-7): Predicting 18.6-29.6. Bet on the Eagles.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Giants, Cardinals, Steelers

As described here, I have an NFL betting model that won enough bets over the last 33 years to break a profit, even if you bet on every game. I’ve been lazy and haven’t fit the model to predict weeks 2-8 this season, but I have it up and running for week 9. Here are my predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Chargers at Dolphins (-1): Predicting 22.4-23.4. Line is correct; don’t bet.
Jaguars at Bengals (-11.5): Predicting 16.5-26.2. Bet on the Jaguars.
Buccaneers at Browns (-7): Predicting 18.4-29.1. Bet on the Browns
Redskins at Vikings (even): Predicting 19.4-22. Bet on the Vikings.
Eagles at Texans (even): Predicting 22.8-24.4. Bet on the Texans.
Jets at Chiefs (-10.5): Predicting 15.3-28.9. Bet on the Chiefs.
Cardinals at Cowboys (-3): Predicting 20.8-24. Bet on the Cowboys, barely.
Rams at 49ers (-10.5): Predicting 15.3-28.9. Bet on the 49ers.
Broncos at Patriots (+2.5): Predicting 26.9-26.9 (should be an awesome game). Bet on the Patriots.
Raiders at Seahawks (-15.5): Predicting 15.7-26.5. Bet on the Raiders.
Ravens at Steelers (even): Predicting 24.3-21.9. Bet on the Ravens.
Colts at Giants (+3): Predicting 26.9-24.3. Bet on the Giants, barely.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Raiders, Browns, Patriots

Analysis of how bad it was.

Don’t blame Indiana football (for once). They were off.

Scott Adams thinks so.

My thoughts on his thoughts:
-Get rid of football? No, just play flag football. Way more interesting.
-Get rid of tennis serves and funky scoring? Yes please.
-Get rid of head balls in soccer? No, because that’s not what causes most concussions. Getting drilled from short range, falling awkwardly, or getting physically hit/headed/kicked by another player cause concussions.
-Make the soccer goal bigger? Maybe. Would be interesting.
-Get rid of offsides in soccer? No, because the defense would have to hang back all the time to guard cherry-pickers. There would be no break-aways. I hate the closeness of most onside/offside calls, but they seem relatively necessary to keep the game interesting.
-Add TV timeouts to soccer play? Why must soccer be TV-friendly like everything else? Why ruin uninterrupted play. Dumb suggestion.
-Add walls so that all soccer is indoor soccer? Yes, but only in the last 15 minutes of each half. I hate how they take so long to do throw-ins and goal kicks when time is running out and they have the ball and lead. Also, awesome moveable walls.
-All his baseball suggestions: No.
-Volleyball and golf suggestions: Don’t care.

My suggestions:
-In baseball, add an “acceptable lead-off line” past each base. The runner on that base can lead-off up to the line but can’t go past the line. The pitcher is allowed to try to pick off the runner, but each time he does, it counts as a ball to the batter. This will eliminate most pick-offs.
-In baseball, stop allowing the batter to leave the batter’s box. If the ball wasn’t hit foul, the batter must remain in the batter’s box, and the pitcher must pitch or try a pick-off within 10 seconds of receiving the ball. Any violation by the batter is an automatic strike; any violation by the pitcher is an automatic ball.
-In soccer, give teams a 1 minute, 30 second shot clock. If you don’t score, kick the ball out of bounds, or hit the goalie or the goal post within 90 seconds, it’s an automatic turnover. Shots in the air after 90 seconds count, the same way they do in basketball.
-In soccer, get rid of the referee timing. Keep a clock that counts down like in every other sport. It’s fine to have stoppage time still, just add it to the clock at the end of each half.
-In basketball, call fouls whenever the defender uses his arms to touch an opponent. Then eject players after 4 fouls. This would lower the incentive to foul and get rid of the physicality on defense. The game would be smoother.

We can fix this.