Monthly Archives: November 2014

NFL Picks- Week 10 of 2014

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Predictions from Week 9.
Week 9: 6-6
Among games highlighted: 2-1

Here are my week 10 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Browns at Bengals (-7): Predicting 24.1-20.8. Bet on the Browns.
Cowboys at Jaguars (+7): Predicting 24.6-19.9. Bet on the Jags.
Titans at Ravens (-10.5): Predicting 15.5-27.4. Bet on the Ravens.
Chiefs at Bills (+1): Predicting 21.5-20.9. Bet on the Bills.
Dolphins at Lions (-2.5): Predicting 19.5-19.5. Bet on the Dolphins.
49ers at Saints (-5): Predicting 21.3-26.8. Bet on the Saints.
Steelers at Jets (+4.5): Predicting 27.1-22.3. Bet on the Steelers.
Falcons at Bucs (even): Predicting 26.3-24.6. Bet on the Falcons.
Broncos at Raiders (+12.5): Predicting 28-20.8. Bet on the Raiders.
Rams at Cardinals (-8): Predicting 16.8-27.7. Bet on the Cards.
Giants at Seahawks (-10.5): Predicting 20.6-26.5. Bet on the Giants.
Bears at Packers (-8): Predicting 21.9-30. Bet on the Packers, barely.
Panthers at Eagles (-7): Predicting 18.6-29.6. Bet on the Eagles.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Giants, Cardinals, Steelers

Two Links Tuesday- November 4, 2014- Royals Edition

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No, not the Lorde song. Though it was hilarious that a San Francisco station banned the song during the World Series.

Kansas-CIty-Royals

In case you weren’t aware, the Royals lost to the Giants in Game 7 of the World Series, thus compiling the best postseason record ever for a team that DIDN’T win the World Series: 11-4. While I’m not a Royals fan, I was certainly rooting against the Giants.

1. Should the Royals have sent Gordon?: Game 7, Royals losing 3-2 in the bottom of the ninth, 2 outs, no one on base. Gordon hits a single to center that is misplayed and rolls to the wall. Gordon rounds second and is pulling into third as the ball is retrieved and thrown to the shortstop in shallow left. I think the Royals should have sent Gordon home and demanded a play at the plate. While it would have been sad to get thrown out at home, I thought there was a great chance he makes it (slow relay, poor throw, not caught at home), and I also thought that Bumgarner was killing it on the mound and would get the last out if he was stuck at third (which he did). This link suggests a 30% chance of success means he should have been sent home. I think he had that. Other sites disagree.

2. Pain Demands to be Felt: Cleveland fans are nodding. Great article.

NFL Picks- Week 9 of 2014

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As described here, I have an NFL betting model that won enough bets over the last 33 years to break a profit, even if you bet on every game. I’ve been lazy and haven’t fit the model to predict weeks 2-8 this season, but I have it up and running for week 9. Here are my predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Chargers at Dolphins (-1): Predicting 22.4-23.4. Line is correct; don’t bet.
Jaguars at Bengals (-11.5): Predicting 16.5-26.2. Bet on the Jaguars.
Buccaneers at Browns (-7): Predicting 18.4-29.1. Bet on the Browns
Redskins at Vikings (even): Predicting 19.4-22. Bet on the Vikings.
Eagles at Texans (even): Predicting 22.8-24.4. Bet on the Texans.
Jets at Chiefs (-10.5): Predicting 15.3-28.9. Bet on the Chiefs.
Cardinals at Cowboys (-3): Predicting 20.8-24. Bet on the Cowboys, barely.
Rams at 49ers (-10.5): Predicting 15.3-28.9. Bet on the 49ers.
Broncos at Patriots (+2.5): Predicting 26.9-26.9 (should be an awesome game). Bet on the Patriots.
Raiders at Seahawks (-15.5): Predicting 15.7-26.5. Bet on the Raiders.
Ravens at Steelers (even): Predicting 24.3-21.9. Bet on the Ravens.
Colts at Giants (+3): Predicting 26.9-24.3. Bet on the Giants, barely.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Raiders, Browns, Patriots