Similar to last year and the year before and the year before that, I will run my NFL model over NCAA men’s basketball teams to show the strength of each team. The model predicts how many more points a team will score than the “average” team, along with how many more points they will give up on defense. The model is only based on the final scores of games during the season and conference tournaments. Positive numbers are good for Offensive strength. Negative numbers are good for defensive strength. My model does not discount (late season runs matter no more than early season victories) and does not account for injuries.

Some things to note:
1. 6 tournament teams are worse than an NCAA Division 1 average team.
2. The top 8 teams are within 5 expected points of each other.
3. My model says Xavier is only the 11th best team, deserving of a 3 seed. Chronically under-seeded West Virginia is a 5 seed deserving to be a 3 seed. Virginia’s offense is below average, but their defense is preposterous (7 points better than 2nd best Cincinnati). Villanova has the best offense, but Oklahoma is right behind them.
4. The best teams not to make the tournament are Penn State (14.0 points above average), Baylor (13.7), Louisville (13.7), and Notre Dame (13.5).
5. Creighton, Butler, and Arizona State deserved seeds that were 3 better.
6. Miami and Rhode Island deserved seeds that were at least 3 worse.