Book Review- From Gutenberg to Zuckerberg

From Gutenberg to Zuckerberg
by John Naughton, 2011

gutenberg zuckerberg

This book gives nine rules for understanding the role of the internet in creating and spreading disruptive innovations:
1. Take the Long View
2. The Web Is Not the Net
3. For the Net, Disruption Is a Feature, Not a Bug
4. Think Ecology, Not Just Economics
5. Complexity Is the New Reality
6. The Network Is Now the Computer
7. The Web Is Evolving
8. Copyrights and “Copywrongs”: Or, Why Our Intellectual Property Regime No Longer Makes Sense
9. Orwell vs. Huxley: The Bookends of Our Networked Future?

It is a fairly quick read, and much of the material will be familiar to the internet-savvy. However, I think it does have some good insights. One thing that interested me was the evolution of market share in new technological innovations. When the telephone was introduced, many small phone networks were created until Bell/AT&T offered better service and took over the market. When radio was introduced, there were many broadcasters all seeking to share information. After some years, a handful (or less) of advertisers and broadcasters came to dominate the popular soap opera radio programs. Three network providers quickly came to dominate television in the second half of the twentieth century. When computers started to become useful, many hardware providers vied for market share. But the market was dominated by Microsoft and Apple by the 1990’s. And the internet? Are we moving from an era of many content providers to an era dominated by a few companies? Google, Facebook, YouTube, Yahoo!, Baidu (Chinese search engine), Wikipedia, QQ (Asian internet portal), LinkedIn, Bing, and Twitter get the most traffic. Do they get a majority of the traffic? A significant majority? It seems these companies get more and more traffic each day as more and more people accept their service or join their network. While I understand that networks increase in value as more and more people join them, it does seem troubling that a small number of companies/networks hold the key to the future evolution of the internet.

Scout Scheduling

Interesting cover story in the most recent Analytics magazine from INFORMS. It tells the story of how The Perduco Group, a small defense consulting firm out of Dayton, Ohio, started offering services in the field of sports analytics. Yes, right now it appears the firm only has one lead analyst in the sports realm, but they still have a variety of interesting services/offerings.

The most interesting offering in the sports realm was in the scheduling of the travel of scouts. It makes sense that you would want to maximize the time your scouts spend viewing high value recruits while minimizing travel costs. Once schedules and players of interest are inputted, it seems like a great area for automation/optimization. Great idea.

A small company that focuses on defense and sports. Seems right up my alley.

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(Image from The Perduco Group’s website http://www.theperducogroup.com/#!scout-scheduling/c1gq4. Click on the image to see it a bit larger.)

Theory Tuesday- Generating a Random Number from any Probability Distribution

Assumption: You can generate X, a random number from a Uniform[0,1] Distribution. There are many ways to do that.

The objective is to turn X, which is uniformly distributed between 0 and 1, into Y, which is a random number from a probability distribution of your choosing. Examples of probability distributions are the Normal Distribution, Exponential Distribution, and Beta Distributions.

Key insight: All probability values are between 0 and 1. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) for a probability distribution gives the percent of the distribution that is below a value in the distribution. Take X, the number in Uniform[0,1], and transform it into Y, a value in your distribution of interest that has CDF X.

Example: Say you generate X=.766 and want a random number, Y, from the standard normal distribution (mean=0, standard deviation=1). Abbreviate the standard normal distribution as N[0,1]. Let F(x) be the CDF of N[0,1]. To generate Y~N[0,1], we need to find Y=F^{-1}(X), where F^{-1} is the inverse of the CDF. We can look up F^{-1}(X)=F^{-1}(.766) in a normal distribution table or by using the function norm.inv(.766,0,1) in Excel. We find that the value of interest is Y=.7257.

For distributions whose CDF is invertible, we can find equations for Y, the random number from the distribution. Take the exponential distribution for example. The CDF of the exponential distribution with mean 1/\lambda is F(y)=1-e^{-\lambda y}. Solve F(y)=x for y. We find y=F^{-1}(x)=\frac{-\ln(1-x)}{\lambda}. Now, when we generate any X~U[0,1], we can use the equation for F^{-1}(X) to find Y, which is a random number from the exponential distribution.

For distributions whose CDF is not continuous, you will want to find the smallest Y who has a CDF of at least X.

Life Tips- Do What You Can, Then Let It Go

We have a lot of defined deliverables in our lives– work that comes with a deadline. And you bust your ass to create a good product, produce good work, and line yourself up for rewards. Which is great. But remember that once your deliverable is presented/turned in/sent into the ether, there’s not much more you can do. Don’t fret about the results. Let it go.

Frozen-Sing-a-Long-Let-It-Go1

Worrying about the deliverable’s reception doesn’t do anyone any good. It makes you stressed and it annoys your co-workers that have to listen to you.

This is not to say that you shouldn’t do all you can to position your deliverable in a good place. You should. But all the accessory stress that comes with worrying about the fate of the deliverable should be avoided at all cost. After all, who has time to worry? Go work on your next project.

Code Monkey Mondays- LaTeX for WordPress

If you like to write math and run a blog with WordPress, it may be useful to know how to use LaTeX in your posts. First question: do you host your own blog and use WordPress.org as the formatting system or does WordPress.com host your blog?

Self-hosting with WordPress.org formatting:

This is what I use for my site. Goto Plugins and search for LaTeX. Install the plugin WP LaTeX. You can now add equations and math to your posts by typing “latex mathy-LaTeX-code” with $ instead of quotes. So, for example, “latex e=mc^2” would become e=mc^2 if I had used the dollar signs instead of the quotes on the outside of the expression. To allow similar expressions to be used in your comments, goto the Plugin settings and enable the comments parsing.

Blog hosted by WordPress.com:

You don’t need to install any plugins. Just type LaTeX as described above and it will auto-parse.

Travels- Comparing Keeneland to Churchill Downs

I’m no horse racing connoisseur. But I’ve watched the Kentucky Derby for years. In the past few months, I was finally able to make it out to Keeneland in the fall and Churchill Downs in the early summer. Here are my thoughts about the two.

Keeneland:
keeneland
-Located outside Lexington, which is better than the Downs’ Louisville, though I may be biased.
-Great view of the entire track from the seats. Churchill Downs’ track seemed gigantic, and you couldn’t tell what was happening on the far side of the track during the race.
-Helpful tutorial offered before the racing started about how to pick horses and place bets.

Churchill Downs:
cdfirst-turn-standard
-Obviously more famous. More grandiose, with towering spires.
-Better options for seating. We had five people and were able to get a little 6 person box that kept us from climbing over other people when we went to bet.

I made money at Keeneland. I lost quite a bit of money at Churchill Downs. On an unrelated note, I liked Keeneland better.

Book Review- How to Write a Lot

How to Write a Lot
By Paul Silvia, 2007

how to write a lot

How to Write a Lot discusses the not-so-secret secrets of academic writing. The main argument of the book can be distilled into this sentence: Schedule your writing time, and stick to the schedule so that writing becomes a habit. Prolific writers write according a schedule. Binge writers, never finding time for writing and always facing deadlines, don’t end up writing much.

This book was a quick read and funny in places. The introductory chapters and the chapter about style were the most useful for me. The rest of the book delved a little too deeply into the specifics of writing in the psychology field. The details about how to write journal articles and books focused upon psychology articles/books, but some insights can be gleaned for any field.

One of my goals is to begin to structure my time more wisely this summer. Here’s hoping that I begin to write a lot.

Project Updates- June 12, 2014

I have goals this summer of doing my own research and writing up the results, as well as doing some general-purpose technical reading. I’m doing great on the technical reading. I read a journal article in the morning, and I’ve read half of a queuing theory book as well as half of “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Kahneman. I’ve had some ideas for my own research, but have had trouble motivating myself to put them on paper/computer. Will keep trying.

Not So Bold Predictions: US Soccer

Today’s not-so-bold prediction: US soccer doesn’t make it out of the group of death stage. It will be more fun to watch if I’m wrong, but seems unlikely.

US plays Ghana at 6pm on Monday 6/16, Portugal at 6pm on Sunday 6/22, and Germany at noon on Thursday 6/26.