NFL Picks – Week 2 of 2018

Using a model developed with Wayne Winston, I post the NFL bets I would make against the spread each week. My model uses scores from previous weeks to predict the results of the current week of games. Here are my 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 betting results, where I am a combined 435-423 against the spread, including a terrible 2016-17 campaign that went 105-133 in an unpredictable year.

Now, it is week 2, so I only have one week of results with which to build my model. And it’s based on scores alone. Nonetheless, the model has been profitable when run over the last 30+ years, even in week 2. Given that, here are the predictions for week 2:

Teaching Schedule

At UC, I will be teaching Operations Planning and Scheduling (OM4076), a methodological course, this fall and spring to undergraduates. I will teach Operations Strategy (OM5085), which is a case-based capstone course, in the spring as well. All my work is going toward getting my fall course ready and getting some research submitted, so there won’t be many posts in the near future.

Book Review – The Swarm

The Swarm: The Second Formic War
by Orson Scott Card and Aaron Johnston, 2016

Follows the protagonists from the First Formic War on their journey to prepare for the second alien invasion, some small number of years later. Time is a difficult concept in these books, as disaster always is made to feel imminent, but travel across the solar system takes months or years. First book in (presumably) a trilogy of books related to the Second Formic War.

Use of Smart AudioBook Player on Phone

Maria and I listen to a lot of books together, and I listen to my own books while running or walking outside. I thought it would be useful to detail the tools we use to listen.

Smart AudioBook Player is an app available for Android. I’m not sure of its Apple equivalent. This app conveniently organizes all the audiobook files you add, collapsing multiple audio files into one book seamlessly. You can have multiple books in your library, which you rotate between as needed. The total remaining time of the book is easily displayed, and there are pause, jump forward, and jump back (10sec or 1 minute) buttons. You can easily grab the book cover to display in the app from an embedded Google image search in the app. We use the full version, which costs about $2. The full version allows you to alter the playback speed, and we listen to most books on 1.2x or 1.4x. I have not altered any other settings.

To get audiobooks to load, we check out audiobooks from our library. I then burn these CD’s to my computer. The benefit of burning them (instead of just listening to the CDs) is that I can keep a library of available books to listen to that does not depend on library due dates, and I never have to return a book in the middle of reading it. The audio files are then transferred to the phone, which allows the app to add them. To be specific, I have Google Drive on both my phone and computer, so I share the files that way. Once the files are in Google Drive, I can access them and move them on my phone, so I copy them from Google Drive to my phone’s memory (“My Files” app). I have an audiobook folder that I add them to on the phone.

Each audiobook is about 0.25-1.25 GB of data. I keep about 5 books on the phone at once, though I have a backlog of 10-20 books on my computer ready to be added as we finish books. If your phone has lots of storage, you could keep many books on it.

To listen to the books, we just use my phone’s speaker when we are seated together at the kitchen table. We typically listen to books during breakfast. If we want to listen in the car, we need a louder speaker to hear over the engine. We use the UE Boom 2 bluetooth speaker, wirelessly connected to my phone. You can turn the volume up or down on the Boom with your phone’s volume switch (which I find more convenient) or the speaker’s volume switch. When I go out for walks or runs, I use bluetooth headphones or wired headphones to listen to the app.

I typically listen to two to four audiobooks at a time. The first is the one Maria and I are reading together. I also have my own audiobooks for contemplative lunchtime walks (typically something philosophical), exercise (typically something related to sports or hobbies), and/or drives to work (content could be anything, and I typically just use the CDs from the library in my car instead of using this app). Audiobooks have overtaken physical books for the thing I read the most over the last two years; perhaps 60-75% of the books I read now are audiobooks.

We used to use the hoopla and Overdrive apps, which let you quickly access audiobooks, but they tended to be “returned” before we finished with them and I would have constant issues streaming the books. By having the files on the phone, there are no streaming issues as you listen to them, and you do not need a data or wifi connection. I have not tried Audible or other fee-based options, as everything I have discussed in this post is free (besides the $2 upgrade to the full version of the Smart AudioBook Player app). Let me know if you have other suggestions of how to listen to or read more books!

Book Review – The Hour Between Dog and Wolf

The Hour Between Dog and Wolf: Risk Taking, Gut Feelings and the Biology of Boom and Bust
by John Coates, 2012

Really good book. Written through the lens of a former financial trader who went back to school to study the effect of our body on risk-taking and decision-making. Our irrational exuberance during bull markets is caused by our physical chemistry, as is our learned helplessness during bear markets. Covers topics in finance, biology, philosophy, and management.

Here are a few excerpts, though there are many more interesting ideas in the book as well. The sections on the influence of testosterone and cortisol are harder to excerpt.

Take for instance the ways in which the brain deals with the problem of the on-tenth-of-a-second delay between viewing a moving object and becoming consciously aware of it. Such a delay puts us in constant danger, so the brain’s visual circuits have devised an ingenious way of helping us. The brain anticipates the actual location of the object, and moves the visual image we end up seeing to this hypothetical new location. In other words, your visual system fast-forwards what you see.

An extraordinary idea, but how on earth could we ever know it to be true? Neuroscientists are devilishly clever at tricking the brain into revealing its secrets, and in this case they have recorded the visual fast-forwarding by means of an experiment investigating what is called the “flash-lag effect.” In this experiment a person is shown an object, say a blue circle, with another circle inside it, a yellow one. The small yellow circle flashes on and off, so what you see is a blue circle with a yellow circle blinking inside it. Then the blue circle with the yellow one inside starts moving around your computer screen. What you should see is a moving blue circle with a blinking yellow one inside it. But you do not. Instead you see a blue circle moving around the screen with a blinking yellow circle trailing about a quarter of an inch behind it. What is going on is this: while the blue circle is moving, your brain advances the image to its anticipated actual location, given the one-tenth-of-a-second time lag between viewing it and being aware of it. But the yellow circle, blinking on and off, cannot be anticipated, so it is not advanced. It thus appears to be left behind by the fast-forwarded blue circle. (pg 70)

A game was played in which participants could select from two decks of cards, one which gave a positive expected return and the other which gave a negative expected return.

When they played the game, all participants were monitored for a somatic marker, the electrical conductivity of their skin. Your skin experiences rapid and unnoticed changes in electrical conductivity, the result of momentary changes in the amount of sweat lying in its crevices. Skin conductance is highly sensitive to novelty, uncertainty and stress. The players’ skin conductance began to spike when they contemplated playing from the money-losing decks, and this somatic prod proved enough to steer them away from these dangerous choices. Aided by these brief shocks, normal players were guided toward the money-making decks long before their conscious rationality had figured out why they should be doing so. (pg 118)

Problems lurk in this Y chromosome. Chromosomes normally swap genetic material, a process known as recombination, and this exchange has the felicitous effect of repairing any damaged genetic material, ensuring our continued health. Genetic recombination can be compared to the regular servicing you schedule for your car, in which old parts are replaced by new ones. Our chromosomes do much the same thing when they recombine–they exchange old and broken genetic parts for new ones. An X chromosome can swap material with another X chromosome, thus ensuring that each generation is fitted with new parts. But not so the isolated Y. This lone wolf has nothing it can swap with, so over time, like a car that is never serviced, it compounds problems and accumulates damage until its genes, one by one, die off. Some animals, such as the kangaroo, now have only a few genes remaining on their Y chromosome. This slow death of the Y has been called Adam’s Curse by the Oxford geneticist Bryan Sykes, who predicts that in five thousand generations men will be extinct. (pg 167)