UNC (ranked #24) over-powered OSU (#12) inside to win 82-74. Indiana held Butler (#23) to poor shooting inside and outside and won 82-73.

And Kentucky (#1) held UCLA to 7 points in the first half in route to an 83-42 blowout. Smothering defense.

Big wins for all three of my favorite teams, even if the losers were my 4th, 7th, and 9th favorite teams.

This week the lines-makers seem to have gone a little too far for almost every NFL game. My model picks the underdog in each matchup (against the spread, obviously), except the Titans-Jags game. Surprisingly, it picks the favorite, the Jaguars, in that game (and they covered).

According to oddsshark.com, underdogs are 110-111-4 against the spread this season. So it seems unlikely that the line-makers are consistently off. Perhaps my model is over-regulated and holding predicted scores too close to the mean score. I will do more analysis, but know that this is a model that would win almost 53% of its bets over the past 30 years if it bet on every game.

Overall: 52-48
Week 15: 7-9
Week 14: 6-9
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 8-6
Week 11: 9-5
Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

1-2 in games highlighted last week. 10-11 overall.

Here are my week 16 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.0): Predicting 19.3-22.8. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.0): Predicting 18.9-20.5. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+7.5): Predicting 27.4-23.1. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-4.0): Predicting 20.1-22.1. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+7.5): Predicting 23.1-20.1. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (+5.5): Predicting 21.5-22.2. Bet on the Houston Texans.
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (-7.5): Predicting 18.3-24.0. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-7.0): Predicting 24.7-28.1. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+11.5): Predicting 28.1-19.0. Bet on the New York Jets.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0): Predicting 22.8-24.7. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5): Predicting 28.0-21.6. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New York Giants at St Louis Rams (-5.0): Predicting 20.1-24.5. Bet on the New York Giants.
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5): Predicting 26.0-26.6. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (+5.5): Predicting 23.4-18.0. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+9.5): Predicting 18.9-19.6. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5): Predicting 24.2-23.0. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Cardinals, Buccaneers, Texans

Overall: 45-39
Week 14: 6-9
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 8-6
Week 11: 9-5
Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

2-1 in games highlighted last week. 9-9 overall.

Here are my week 15 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams (-4.5): Predicting 19.6-21.6. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (+1.0): Predicting 26.3-27.0. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-14.5): Predicting 14.9-28.8. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (+4.5): Predicting 24.4-24.3. Bet on the Buffalo Bills.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-3.0): Predicting 19.7-25.0. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-1.0): Predicting 18.9-22.3. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-9.5): Predicting 16.3-21.8. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5): Predicting 22.2-27.5. Bet on the Houston Texans.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5): Predicting 15.1-26.7. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-9.0): Predicting 20.7-27.4. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-7.0): Predicting 20.1-26.7. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+4.0): Predicting 25.1-24.3. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (+1.0): Predicting 21.3-22.9. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5): Predicting 15.5-23.8. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.0): Predicting 23.6-28.9. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (+2.5): Predicting 26.2-26.7. Bet on the Chicago Bears.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Panthers, Vikings, Dolphins

Overall: 39-30
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 8-6
Week 11: 9-5
Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

1-2 in games highlighted last week. 7-8 overall.

Here are my week 14 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+3.5): Predicting 24.9-24.1. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0): Predicting 21.8-24.8. Line is correct; do not bet.
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (+3.5): Predicting 24.8-23.1. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-10.5): Predicting 14.9-23.9. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5): Predicting 23.5-18.8. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5): Predicting 21.3-24.6. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-7.0): Predicting 16.3-23.8. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-11.0): Predicting 21.3-29.2. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (even): Predicting 23.4-23.9. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.
St Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (+2.5): Predicting 23.8-23.4. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (even): Predicting 19.1-20.8. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10.0): Predicting 21.3-26.6. Bet on the Buffalo Bills.
San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders (+9.5): Predicting 21.7-18.3. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (even): Predicting 23.0-26.2. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (+3.5): Predicting 26.0-23.5. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-13.0): Predicting 21.5-31.2. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Buccaneers, Cardinals, Bills

Overall: 29-24
Week 12: 8-6
Week 11: 9-5
Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

1-2 in games highlighted last week. 6-6 overall.

Here are my week 13 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7.0): Predicting 17.0-23.7. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.0): Predicting 26.0-27.9. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5): Predicting 20.7-20.9. Bet on the Seattle Seahawks.
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-7.0): Predicting 18.7-25.0. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-2.5): Predicting 18.1-22.7. Bet on the Buffalo Bills.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-7.0): Predicting 17.0-25.5. Bet on the Houston Texans.
Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5): Predicting 19.5-29.6. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5): Predicting 22.5-21.7. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5): Predicting 18.2-23.7. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5): Predicting 24.4-28.4. Bet on the New Orleans Saints.
Oakland Raiders at St Louis Rams (-7.0): Predicting 19.4-24.1. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5): Predicting 23.3-20.5. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5): Predicting 22.6-21.7. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-3.0): Predicting 27.2-28.7. Bet on the New England Patriots.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (even): Predicting 22.9-25.6. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+7.0): Predicting 25.9-18.7. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Bears, Saints, Dolphins

Predictions from Week 11

Week 11: 9-5
Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

2-1 in games highlighted last week. 5-4 overall.

Here are my week 11 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+8.0): Predicting 24.1-17.1. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (-3.0): Predicting 21.7-23.0. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4.5): Predicting 17.0-25.1. Bet on the Buffalo Bills.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-5.5): Predicting 22.0-26.8. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-1.0): Predicting 19.1-23.8. Bet on the Houston Texans.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-15.0): Predicting 18.4-31.5. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+10.0): Predicting 26.4-21.2. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-7.5): Predicting 18.3-26.0. Bet on the New England Patriots.
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5): Predicting 19.5-29.2. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.
St Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers (-4.5): Predicting 17.6-25.0. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.0): Predicting 20.9-23.2. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-8.0): Predicting 22.5-25.3. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5): Predicting 18.0-25.2. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.0): Predicting 24.4-22.9. Bet on the New York Giants.
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3.0): Predicting 24.3-23.7. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Bills, Titans, Chargers

Predictions from Week 10.

Week 10: 6-7
Week 9: 6-6

1-2 in games highlighted last week. 3-3 overall.

Here are my week 11 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.0): Predicting 18.4-24.7. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-1.0): Predicting 24.3-24.7. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3.0): Predicting 22.5-23.0. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.0): Predicting 19.4-22.9. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-5.5): Predicting 25.6-28.6. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (even): Predicting 19.1-24.3. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-8.0): Predicting 21.7-27.9. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (+4.0): Predicting 22.5-23.1. Bet on the New York Giants.
Denver Broncos at St Louis Rams (+10.5): Predicting 29.3-21.8. Bet on the St Louis Rams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-8.5): Predicting 20.0-28.2. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-11.5): Predicting 17.1-27.1. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-1.0): Predicting 17.1-21.2. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Predicting 26.2-29.5. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+7.0): Predicting 24.2-21.8. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.

Each week I’ll show all the predictions, as above, and I’ll pick three games that I feel most confident about, as I look at my model and think about what I’ve seen watching football. Here are the 3 teams I would actually bet on ATS (against the spread):
Cardinals, Giants, Titans