Category Archives: Sports

NFL Picks- Week 3 of 2015

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Overall Against the Spread: 9-7
Week 2: 9-7

Here are my week 3 predictions, with the current line in parentheses:
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5): Predicting 18.9-21.3. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.0): Predicting 15.4-25.2. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3.0): Predicting 20.9-28.6. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1.0): Predicting 20.1-24.2. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-7.0): Predicting 20.8-26.0. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.0): Predicting 20.7-20.9. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-14.5): Predicting 19.0-28.2. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-1.0): Predicting 13.9-25.5. Bet on the New York Jets.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3.0): Predicting 15.3-25.9. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.
Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (even): Predicting 27.5-23.2. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5): Predicting 23.7-20.9. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7.0): Predicting 19.8-29.8. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5): Predicting 21.3-26.3. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-16.0): Predicting 23.5-31.5. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+2.5): Predicting 24.3-22.4. Bet on the Detroit Lions.
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-7.5): Predicting 21.2-26.2. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.

NFL Picks- Week 2 of 2015

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I have a NFL betting model that uses previous weeks’ scores to predict the results of the current week of games. Here are my 2014 betting results, where I finished 79-63 against the spread.

Now, it is week 2, so I only have one week of results with which to build my model. However, the model has been profitable when run over the last 30+ years, even in week 2. Given that, here are the predictions for week 2:

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0): Predicting 18.0-22.8. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (even): Predicting 19.6-24.2. Bet on the Buffalo Bills.
Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (-3.0): Predicting 15.3-24.7. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+2.5): Predicting 24.9-22.6. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0): Predicting 19.8-28.4. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (even): Predicting 27.8-17.8. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5): Predicting 21.2-21.0. Bet on the Detroit Lions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-11.0): Predicting 19.6-28.4. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-2.5): Predicting 21.7-25.5. Bet on the New York Giants.
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5): Predicting 20.4-18.6. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (+3.5): Predicting 22.0-22.3. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.0): Predicting 19.1-15.7. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (+7.0): Predicting 21.4-19.1. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.0): Predicting 21.7-25.5. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-4.0): Predicting 22.8-28.7. Bet on the Green Bay Packers.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5): Predicting 23.0-18.6. Bet on the New York Jets.

Game Theoretic Baseball Catching

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I heard about Zack Hample and his thousands of game balls many years ago. Now he has over 8,000 and caught A-Rod’s 3000th hit (a home run) this year.

You might be able to increase your odds by moving to areas of less competition, even if it’s an area where fewer balls are hit.

Some of Hample’s suggestions:

1. Hample suggests going to batting practice before the game begins and finding an empty row with aisle access. You want to be able to move both left/right as well as up/down in the seats so you can cover more room (around 5:25 in the video).

2. Learn foreign languages! Now this is thinking creatively. Baseball players often toss balls up to fans if you ask them nicely. Hample figured that foreign players would be more receptive if he asked in their native tongue. He’s learned how to ask “can you throw me a baseball” in over 30 languages (around 6:45 in the video).

3. Look at ESPN’s home run tracker. You can look up any player or any stadium to see where home runs are hit in a scatterplot. There are statistical patterns so you can choose your seat accordingly to increase your chances of catching an important home run (around 6:10 in the video).

(via Mind Your Decisions)

Fantasy Draft- Eric

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I’m playing in a 10 person PPR league with fraternity brothers from CWRU (most of whom joined after I left and I haven’t met). We had a snake draft yesterday and I had the 5th pick. We’re starting 2 RB, 2 WR, and a flex (no TE necessary). Here’s my initial team; I think it’s pretty good:

1st round: Eddie Lacy RB
2nd round: Demaryius Thomas WR
3rd round: Lamar Miller RB
4th round: Jordan Matthews WR
5th round: Arian Foster RB
6th round: Giovani Bernard RB
7th round: Allen Robinson WR
8th round: Charles Johnson WR
9th round: Eli Manning, QB
10th round: John Brown, WR
11th round: Justin Tucker, K
12th round: Panthers, D/ST

Book Review- The Sports Gene

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The Sports Gene
by David Epstein, 2013

sports_gene

This book includes a very interesting discussion of nature vs. nurture with regard to high performance athletes. While there were certain chapters on specific gene mutations/disorders that led to certain abnormally good athletes, the main takeaway (to me) is that your genes will predispose you for certain sports. Tall -> basketball. Lots of fast-twitch muscles -> sprinter. Lots of slow-twitch muscles -> marathoner. Training (the 10,000 hour rule, which is really the 1,000 to 40,000 hour rule) will help and can sometimes overcome genetic deficiencies, but genes play a bigger role in athletics than most people realize.

We listened to this book on tape. While the material is good, the reading was done by the author and was particularly bad. Note to authors: Don’t do a recording of your own book in which you try to imitate other people’s voices if you can’t do accents. All attempts to do so here were grating to my ears.

Keep Mike Leake

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GOODYEAR, AZ - FEBRUARY 16: Mike Leake #44 of the Cincinnati Reds poses during Photo Day on Saturday, February 16, 2013 at Goodyear Ballpark in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Jason Wise/MLB Photos via Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Mike Leake

Mike Leake

I understand the business of sports, but I’d like to see the Reds not trade Mike Leake. They probably will tomorrow or the next day, but I’d like for them not to. He is our household’s favorite player. It’s rare nowadays you get to watch a player play his whole career with one team, and I’d like to see that here. Leake went straight to the majors after being drafted and has only spent one game in the minors in his career. He is a crafty pitcher and a good batter, and his last 4 games have been otherworldly (4-0, 0.60 ERA). The Reds have a chance to re-sign him in the offseason. Even if they don’t, they’ll get a compensatory pick (basically a pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft). I doubt the Reds would get much more than the equivalent of a first-round pick for Leake, so it doesn’t make sense to me to trade him. KEEP LEAKE!