Week 8’s Titans/Texans spread ended up being -3.5, which led to a loss for me (I had Texans by 2.1).

Overall Against the Spread: 49-48
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 8: 6-6 (2 pushes)

This Week’s Predictions (line in parentheses):
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-11.0): Predicting 18.5-29.0. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.0): Predicting 21.8-25.9. Bet on the Buffalo Bills.
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (+2.5): Predicting 21.0-24.6. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.
St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5): Predicting 17.7-20.7. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-9.5): Predicting 21.1-26.6. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.
Washington Redskins at New England Patriots (-15.0): Predicting 19.1-30.8. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-9.0): Predicting 18.7-28.2. Bet on the New York Jets.
Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5): Predicting 19.6-24.2. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (+7.5): Predicting 24.0-19.8. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5): Predicting 25.9-26.5. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+5.5): Predicting 22.7-20.3. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5): Predicting 21.4-20.4. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers (-4.0): Predicting 23.0-27.7. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.

Line for Tennessee/Houston is not out yet.

Overall Against the Spread: 43-42
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)

Week 7 Predictions (line in parentheses):
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-8.5): Predicting 21.2-32.2. Bet on the New England Patriots.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5): Predicting 20.5-31.4. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (even): Predicting 22.7-20.1. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (+4.5): Predicting 28.7-22.1. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (even): Predicting 21.6-23.7. Bet on the Houston Texans.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-3.0): Predicting 23.0-24.9. Bet on the New York Giants.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (even): Predicting 21.9-22.4. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (-9.5): Predicting 14.7-23.7. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.0): Predicting 23.7-28.8. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+2.5): Predicting 24.0-21.0. Bet on the New York Jets.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (+7.0): Predicting 21.9-20.0. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+3.0): Predicting 19.9-21.7. Bet on the Denver Broncos.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5): Predicting 20.7-27.9. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (-7.5): Predicting 17.3-27.2. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.

I know I’m about 10 days late to this article, but it is fantastic:
53 Minutes of Madness in Toronto: An Oral History of the ALDS Inning That Broke Baseball

It’s a retelling of the game that went crazy, starting with this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZ3h4O2VNsw

It’s good that no one is around in the office right now, because I could not stop laughing at the last gif. Excellent.

Update (10/23/15): Steelers/Chiefs line is now out.

Overall Against the Spread: 37-35
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6

Week 7 Predictions (line in parentheses):
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5): Predicting 22.6-20.2. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5): Predicting 21.7-24.8. Bet on the New Orleans Saints.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+2.5): Predicting 22.0-20.2. Bet on the Detroit Lions.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.0): Predicting 23.8-20.1. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-4.0): Predicting 19.4-25.0. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.0): Predicting 22.0-28.2. Bet on the New York Jets.
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans (+4.0): Predicting 28.0-24.0. Line is correct; do not bet.
Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams (-5.5): Predicting 20.8-24.3. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-3.0): Predicting 19.8-27.5. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-4.0): Predicting 22.1-25.5. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-3.0): Predicting 19.7-25.2. Bet on the New York Giants.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.0): Predicting 20.6-22.7. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.0): Predicting 25.3-21.4. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals (-9.0): Predicting 21.3-32.4. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.

The Colts ran one of the worst plays in NFL history on Sunday. Perhaps you saw it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrtzpdH_uPM

This Grantland article has a good discussion of the play. I particularly like the conclusion:

That, combined with the significant likelihood that Whalen was instructed not to snap the football, is why I can’t get onboard with the idea that the decision to try the fake punt should get Chuck Pagano fired, even if Pagano took the blame afterward. (Indeed, Pagano could be seen after the play saying something to the effect of “Why did you snap the ball?”) The game wasn’t quite a lost cause, but coaches make routinely worse decisions on a weekly basis; Jim Caldwell’s decision to kick a field goal down seven points late in the fourth quarter in Detroit, for one, was patently worse. Pagano’s play call was questionable, but it was the execution of the Snapfu that was truly dreadful.

I remember saying “why did the Lions just kick a field goal? What the… ” on Sunday, as well.

Overall Against the Spread: 29-29
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)

Week 6 Predictions (line in parentheses):
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+3.0): Predicting 28.7-23.5. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+3.5): Predicting 22.6-23.8. Bet on the Buffalo Bills.
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (+4.0): Predicting 22.2-21.1. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-2.5): Predicting 20.0-23.7. Bet on the Detroit Lions.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (even): Predicting 21.6-24.0. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (-4.0): Predicting 20.6-25.9. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-7.0): Predicting 15.5-23.3. Bet on the New York Jets.
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Predicting 18.7-26.6. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.0): Predicting 26.0-23.5. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.0): Predicting 20.3-22.7. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.
San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers (-11.5): Predicting 18.9-28.5. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (+1.0): Predicting 24.6-23.3. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+9.0): Predicting 28.3-21.3. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.0): Predicting 21.7-24.7. Bet on the New York Giants.

Overall Against the Spread: 24-23
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-1.5): Predicting 20.1-21.8. Bet on the Houston Texans.
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons (-8.0): Predicting 20.0-29.5. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0): Predicting 18.1-24.8. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-10.0): Predicting 17.9-25.2. Bet on the St. Louis Rams.
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5): Predicting 21.7-29.9. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (+1.0): Predicting 24.9-26.8. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5): Predicting 18.7-24.2. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7.0): Predicting 20.8-26.3. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5): Predicting 20.6-23.1. Line is correct; do not bet.
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+2.5): Predicting 27.4-21.2. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (+10.0): Predicting 28.7-25.6. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+4.5): Predicting 23.6-21.9. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (-7.0): Predicting 14.5-27.0. Bet on the New York Giants.
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers (-3.0): Predicting 24.1-22.8. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Update: Opening line on the New Orleans game is now out.

Poor performance week 3.

Reminder that my model only uses past scores to predict future scores. So the fact that Roethlisberger is out for the Steelers is not considered.

Overall Against the Spread: 14-18
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5): Predicting 19.2-26.9. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-7.0): Predicting 19.1-26.8. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-5.5): Predicting 22.2-29.1. Bet on the Buffalo Bills.
Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears (+3.0): Predicting 26.5-23.8. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5): Predicting 21.4-28.7. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5): Predicting 18.9-26.0. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.0): Predicting 22.4-19.5. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3.0): Predicting 19.8-20.4. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-9.0): Predicting 21.6-24.7. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5): Predicting 17.3-31.5. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-7.0): Predicting 15.6-22.4. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (+9.5): Predicting 27.0-22.3. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7): Predicting 23.8-24.4. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+2.5): Predicting 22.0-18.6. Bet on the New York Jets.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-10.0): Predicting 19.2-26.9. Bet on the Detroit Lions.