Category Archives: Personal Updates

Paper Submitted!

Alex Mills and I submitted “Incentive-Compatible Prehospital Triage in Emergency Medical Services” to MSOM today! That project started in January 2014 and has evolved significantly since its start. I think the final paper turned out really well. I’ve updated my Current Projects page to be more relevant.

Abstract for submitted work: The Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system is designed to handle life-threatening emergencies, but a large and growing number of non-emergency patients are accessing hospital-based healthcare through EMS. A recent national survey estimated that 17% of ambulance trips to hospital Emergency Departments (EDs) were medically unnecessary, and that medically unnecessary trips make up an increasing proportion of all EMS trips. These non-emergency patients are a controllable arrival stream that can be re-directed to an appropriate care provider, reducing congestion in EDs, reducing costs to patients and healthcare payers, and improving patient health, but prehospital triage to identify these patients is almost never implemented by EMS providers in the United States. Using a queueing model with economic costs and rewards, we find that prehospital triage is unlikely to occur with traditional fee-for-service reimbursements, regardless of how effective or accurate the triage process may be. However, offering bundled payments to EMS providers would provide them with an incentive to conduct prehospital triage, and, moreover, with incentive to improve their triage effectiveness.

Papers Read Jan-Feb 2015

I’ve started to keep the first page of each academic paper that I read in a binder, marked with my notes about the paper’s content and usefulness. I started doing this in June 2014. Between June and December, I read 89 academic papers. In January and February 2015, I read 69 more.

By Decade:
1980’s: 2
1990’s: 2
2000’s: 18
2010’s: 45

Journals (with more than 1 paper read):
Management Science: 18
MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference: 6
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management: 4
IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering: 3
Information Systems Research: 3
Operations Research: 2
Production and Operations Management: 2
Queueing Systems: 2

Total citations among 69 papers: 18,108
Max citations: 5,532
Mean citations: 266
Median citations: 31.5
Papers with less than 5 citations: 20, though some are very new

If interested, the full Excel list is here.

Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2015 Recap

SSACLogoWebsite-2015

Last week I attended my first MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference as a student attendee. Sloan is a lot different than most conferences that would be relevant to someone in Operations Management. For one, it only accepts 8 research papers for presentation. For two, most of its presentation slots are panels where the participants come from industry. Specifically, sports teams or companies.

Overall, I had a good time. Most of the research paper talks I attended were good, and maybe half of the panels I attended said something interesting or funny. It’s a common refrain from attendees that panelists are trying to be intentionally vague or misleading so that they don’t give away any competitive advantage. While I understand this, it makes for some boring panels.

I got to hang out with Charles Glover, a former co-worker at Booz Allen that was at the conference showing off Booz’s data science capabilities. Booz Allen co-sponsored the conference enough to have a permanent “data visualization” zone in one of the conference rooms. Apparently Booz Allen is helping run Major League Baseball’s replay headquarters since last year’s introduction of coaching challenges. Here is an overview of how Booz Allen is using data science in sports.

I queried Matthew Berry, resident fantasy expert, for tips for Maria’s new class. During the next January term at DePauw, she will be teaching “How to Use Data Science to Win at Fantasy Football”. That should be fun. Berry had suggestions for looking at draft value by position and number of draftees still in lineups in Week N.

I wrote a few notes from some of the interesting panels and presentations, which I’ll share here:

Michael Lewis (author of Moneyball and The Blind Side) was on a panel with Daryl Morey (Rockets GM), Jeff Van Gundy, and Shane Battier. Lewis had a few good lines, including “You can’t be too stupid to play baseball”. He said that he wanted to interview Battier for this article because Battier was a lab rat who could understand the experiments his coaches and GM were putting him through. Battier, for his part, had a good line about Heat coach (misspelled) Erik Spoelstra: “Spoelstra told me, ‘Don’t dribble, don’t post-up, don’t offensive rebound. Just catch and shoot or catch and pass'”. Battier’s teammates LeBron, Wade, and Bosh got a little more freedom, I imagine.

Mark McClusky, from WIRED magazine, shared some interesting thoughts on the evolution of performance in sports. “The only competitive advantage is to learn faster.” Once you implement a strategy or an insight, others will copy it, so you need to keep learning to stay good. He also shared some research on sleep and suggested that everyone needs to sleep more to be at peak performance. Some suggested books for reading include Better, Faster, Stronger by McClusky, The Sports Gene by Epstein, and Better by Gawande.

There was a new fantasy platform called Reality Sports Online that will begin a big advertising campaign to get players this year. It is a more complicated/intense version of fantasy involving mullti-year contracts, negotiations, and rookie drafts. It’s meant to mimic the general manager experience more than current fantasy leagues.

Dan Rosenheck, writer at the Economist sports blog, talked about how Spring Training statistics had some predictive value, contrary to popular belief. A brief writeup of his presentation is here.

Brian Burke kept his cool in a silly football analytics panel, which was impressive. He said that an NFL game boils down to 11 minutes of gameplay, which means a defensive coordinator could watch all of his squads plays and grade his players 5 or 6 times in half an hour. As such, it could be years before player tracking data beats insights from tape watching.

Boston was cold and snowy. I don’t suggest visiting in February for tourism.

Other Recaps of SSAC 2015:
What it’s like to be a woman at SSAC
Soccer Analytics Panel at 2015 SSAC: Not a waste of time
2015 Sloan Recap: Where are the Analytics?
SSAC 2015 Takeaway – Accepting Yes For An Answer
The Value of a Good Analytics Program by Brian Burke

Spring 2015 Schedule

6 half semester seminars

First half of semester:
Monday, 3-6pm: Healthcare Operations Management (OM) from Jonathan Helm
Tuesday, 1-4pm: Emerging Areas in OM from Ruomeng Cui
Thursday, 1-4pm: Recommender Systems (an Information Systems course) from Jingjing Zhang

Second half of semester:
Monday, 1-4pm: Empirical OM from Qiuping Yu
Tuesday/Thursday, 4-5:30pm: Information Economics from Dmitry Lubensky
Thursday, 1-4pm: Operations Planning and Scheduling from Kyle Cattani

All courses are reading-heavy. I will probably be assigned about 10-15 papers to read each week.

Papers Read June-December 2014

I’ve started to keep the first page of each academic paper that I read in a binder, marked with my notes about the paper’s content and usefulness. I started doing this in June 2014. Between June and December, I read 89 academic papers. 40 of those were for Kurt Bretthauer’s Service Operations class.

By Decade:
1960’s: 1
1970’s: 3
1980’s: 9
1990’s: 16
2000’s: 24
2010’s: 35
(I’m surprised the 2010’s beat the 2000’s by that much)

Journals (with more than 1 paper read):
Production and Operations Management: 11
Management Science: 10
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management: 9
Operations Research: 8
Harvard Business Review: 4
Journal of Sports Economics: 3
Applied Economics: 2
Decision Sciences: 2
Interfaces: 2
Journal of Marketing: 2

Total citations among 89 papers: 47,531
Max citations: 15,588
Total citations among top 9 papers: 40,318
Mean citations: 573
Median citations: 54
Papers with less than 5 citations: 20, though some are very new

If interested, the full Excel list is here.

Current Projects

People ask me all the time what I’m working on. While the Current Projects page has a little bit of relevant information, it is intentionally incomplete. I have a list of the multitude of projects that I am working on at this time.

Hopefully leading to academic papers:
-Prehospital Triage paper
-NFL betting model
-Sunk Costs in Call Centers Project
-Energy research (beginning in January)
-Forecasting Sports Attendance to aid in staffing decisions
-End-game decision making in basketball
-Anchoring effect of online advertisements

Conferences:
-Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in February, as a spectator
-Potentially POMS, INFORMS Healthcare, and MSOM, depending on funding and talk submission

Interesting projects (most of which do not have a defined goal or end-state at this time):
-Compiling list of seminal papers in operations management/research
-Applying network-based ranking system to sports leagues
-Writing and recording video lectures based on my graduate studies (for website and for future student reference)

Courses (Spring 2015):
-4 Operations Management/Decision Science topical courses (half-semester each)
-Data Mining course (half-semester)
-Information Economics (half-semester)
(Expect to read 3-5 academic papers per class per week. 3 classes each half-semester, so 10-15 papers per week.)

Personal Projects:
-Plan wedding
-3-5 website posts per week
-Fantasy Football (just finished season)
Watch Sports
-Work out or exercise 3-4 times per week, keeping track of lifting improvements
-Read lots of books (currently reading: Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman, Blackett’s War by Budiansky, Common Errors in Statistics by Good, It Works by Evans, Microeconometrics by Cameron, Master and Commander by O’Brian)
-Keep personal lists (books read, movies watched, etc)
-Have lots of dinner parties and other parties

I worry that I have too much on my plate, and I am very busy. But I enjoy the variety, and neither my coursework nor research seems to be suffering. So I carry on.

Upcoming Sports Open Houses

In case you haven’t checked it out, look at the Sport Open House schedule. Let me know if you’ll be coming by for one of the upcoming events:

Friday, 11/14/14: US vs Colombia, soccer friendly, 2:45pm
Sunday, 11/16/14: Patriots at Colts, 8pm
Tuesday, 11/18/14: Kentucky vs Kansas, 9pm
Wednesday, 11/19/14: Spurs at Cavaliers, 7pm
Sunday, 11/30/14: Redskins at Colts, 1pm and Kentucky vs Providence, 2pm
Tuesday, 12/2/14: Indiana vs Pittsburgh, 7pm and Pacers at Suns, 9pm
Friday, 12/5/14: Kentucky vs Texas, 7pm and Pacers at Kings, 10pm
Sunday, 12/7/14: Colts at Browns, 1pm
Tuesday, 12/9/14: Indiana vs Louisville, 9pm
Saturday, 12/20/14: North Carolina vs Ohio State, 1pm and Indiana vs Butler, 2:30pm and Kentucky vs UCLA, 3:30pm

Some awesome matchups, especially those basketball games on 12/20. Stop by.

MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2015

SSACLogoWebsite-2015

Just bought a non-MIT student ticket ($200) for MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2015.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/

Anybody else going? Tickets literally just went up for sale. They sell out early each year, so grab yours now!

UPDATE 1: Early Bird general admission tickets (non-student) sold out in considerably less than 10 minutes.

UPDATE 2 (11/5/14): Student tickets seem to be sold out.

Project Updates- October 16, 2014

Well, middle of semester hits, and my posting frequency goes down. Predictable.

6 main projects of interest to me right now, 4 of which are actively being undertaken:
1. Investigating feasibility of multi-level triage in EMS: Gave a presentation in front of the department last Friday. It went very well. I am beginning the first draft of the paper.
2. Predicting sports attendance: A project for two classes (Econometrics and Service Operations) that is in the initial stages. I am looking to improve day-to-day forecasts of attendance for baseball games. Perhaps other sports too.
3. NFL betting model: Presented a poster on the successful betting model we created. Need to find time to write up the results. Analysis is done. Model wins enough bets (over 30 years) to make a profit, even if you bet equally on every game.
4. Finding sunk costs in call centers: Very initial analysis done. It looks like the longer someone spends in the button-pushing segment of the call center (sunk cost), the longer they are willing to wait for service. Among other findings.
5 (in planning). Prestige rankings: Want to create a website that generalizes the effort shown in this paper http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0017249#pone-0017249-g004 to all sports.
6 (in planning). Have a great idea for optimizing end-of-game decision making in basketball. Dynamic programming will be involved.

I’m also doing work for 3 PhD classes and teaching myself advanced econometrics. Busy.