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NFL Picks- Week 8 of 2015

Line for Tennessee/Houston is not out yet.

Overall Against the Spread: 43-42
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)

Week 7 Predictions (line in parentheses):
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-8.5): Predicting 21.2-32.2. Bet on the New England Patriots.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5): Predicting 20.5-31.4. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (even): Predicting 22.7-20.1. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (+4.5): Predicting 28.7-22.1. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (even): Predicting 21.6-23.7. Bet on the Houston Texans.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-3.0): Predicting 23.0-24.9. Bet on the New York Giants.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (even): Predicting 21.9-22.4. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (-9.5): Predicting 14.7-23.7. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.0): Predicting 23.7-28.8. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+2.5): Predicting 24.0-21.0. Bet on the New York Jets.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (+7.0): Predicting 21.9-20.0. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+3.0): Predicting 19.9-21.7. Bet on the Denver Broncos.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5): Predicting 20.7-27.9. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (-7.5): Predicting 17.3-27.2. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.

The rules were meant to be changed, not broken

Sports like to change their rules lately.
I already knew about the NFL changing the extra point kick distance to punish good kicking.
I already knew about NCAA basketball moving to a 30 second shot clock and getting rid of the 5 second on-ball defending turnover.
I just learned about hockey moving to 3 on 3 overtimes to encourage scoring via more open space on the ice. Looks crazy. Not going to get to shootouts too often anymore.

Fans are going to love it and the forwards are going to love it. Goalies and ‘D’? Maybe not as much.

Another group that might not like it? Sports researchers. As someone who often uses multiple years of data to make a point, I’ll just say that changing the rules makes analysis difficult. Stop doing it so often.

The more things change, the less they stay the same.

NFL Picks- Week 7 of 2015

Update (10/23/15): Steelers/Chiefs line is now out.

Overall Against the Spread: 37-35
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6

Week 7 Predictions (line in parentheses):
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5): Predicting 22.6-20.2. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5): Predicting 21.7-24.8. Bet on the New Orleans Saints.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+2.5): Predicting 22.0-20.2. Bet on the Detroit Lions.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.0): Predicting 23.8-20.1. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-4.0): Predicting 19.4-25.0. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.0): Predicting 22.0-28.2. Bet on the New York Jets.
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans (+4.0): Predicting 28.0-24.0. Line is correct; do not bet.
Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams (-5.5): Predicting 20.8-24.3. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-3.0): Predicting 19.8-27.5. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-4.0): Predicting 22.1-25.5. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-3.0): Predicting 19.7-25.2. Bet on the New York Giants.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.0): Predicting 20.6-22.7. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.0): Predicting 25.3-21.4. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals (-9.0): Predicting 21.3-32.4. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.

What the

The Colts ran one of the worst plays in NFL history on Sunday. Perhaps you saw it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrtzpdH_uPM

This Grantland article has a good discussion of the play. I particularly like the conclusion:

That, combined with the significant likelihood that Whalen was instructed not to snap the football, is why I can’t get onboard with the idea that the decision to try the fake punt should get Chuck Pagano fired, even if Pagano took the blame afterward. (Indeed, Pagano could be seen after the play saying something to the effect of “Why did you snap the ball?”) The game wasn’t quite a lost cause, but coaches make routinely worse decisions on a weekly basis; Jim Caldwell’s decision to kick a field goal down seven points late in the fourth quarter in Detroit, for one, was patently worse. Pagano’s play call was questionable, but it was the execution of the Snapfu that was truly dreadful.

I remember saying “why did the Lions just kick a field goal? What the… ” on Sunday, as well.

Book Review- Big Data Baseball

Big Data Baseball: Math, Miracles, and the End of a 20-Year Losing Streak
by Travis Sawchik, 2015

big data baseball

Infield shifts. Ground ball pitchers. Pitch framing catchers. Shifts based on ball-strike count. Speedy outfielders in big ballparks.

A number of insights led the Pirates to improve their defense going into the 2013 season. The team took a data-centric view and were able to get the on-field managers to implement the strategy. They’ve made the wild card in three straight seasons despite a small payroll.

While the insights are nice, I think of this more as “Moneyball 2.0”, rather than “Big Data”. Yes, data was used, but it’s not big data. This was a case of finding undervalued assets, just like Moneyball.

I don’t like the Pirates. This book didn’t change that. However, it did make me worried that my Reds are being left behind more than I previously thought. Outside of Joey Votto, no one seems to be analytically inclined in either the front office or clubhouse/dugout. The rest of the National League Central is very competitive and won’t wait around for the Reds to catch up with the times.