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NFL Picks- Week 14 of 2015

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Updated with Colts and Ravens lines.

Overall Against the Spread: 86-82
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 8: 6-6 (2 pushes)
Week 9: 6-7
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 6-7 (1 push)
Week 12: 11-5
Week 13: 4-11 (1 not bet due to correct line)

This Week’s Predictions (line in parentheses):
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-8.0): Predicting 18.2-27.6. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-8.5): Predicting 19.8-28.2. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears (-3.5): Predicting 20.8-24.3. Line is correct; do not bet.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5): Predicting 19.4-25.4. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (-1.0): Predicting 20.7-22.2. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+3.0): Predicting 24.6-22.3. Bet on the Houston Texans.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (even): Predicting 23.8-25.5. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5): Predicting 18.0-29.4. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (-7.5): Predicting 18.1-26.0. Bet on the New York Jets.
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (even): Predicting 23.7-24.2. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams (even): Predicting 19.7-22.3. Bet on the St. Louis Rams.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5): Predicting 23.5-28.5. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-8.5): Predicting 18.7-25.9. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-7.5): Predicting 17.2-24.7. Line is correct; do not bet.
Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens (+13.0): Predicting 24.2-22.2. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (even): Predicting 23.7-24.1. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.

Chapman

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Aroldis Chapman either has already been traded or is about to be traded, depending on the sources you read. Either way, it’s sad to see such a dominant player go. It’s sadder to have wasted such a dominant pitcher in the bullpen for 5 seasons (300ish innings over 5 seasons when a starter would pitch 200ish per season). Farewell.

NFL Picks- Week 13 of 2015

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Updated 12/4/15 with the lines for the Bengals and Colts games.

Overall Against the Spread: 82-71
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 8: 6-6 (2 pushes)
Week 9: 6-7
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 6-7 (1 push)
Week 12: 11-5

This Week’s Predictions (line in parentheses):
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3.0): Predicting 23.5-22.1. Bet on the Detroit Lions.
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-3.0): Predicting 19.8-24.0. Bet on the Buffalo Bills.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-7.5): Predicting 16.5-24.3. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+10.5): Predicting 26.4-19.3. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-4.0): Predicting 23.4-24.6. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (even): Predicting 19.8-22.3. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+7.5): Predicting 29.8-22.9. Bet on the New Orleans Saints.
New York Jets at New York Giants (+1.0): Predicting 23.3-25.0. Bet on the New York Giants.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Predicting 20.8-23.3. Line is correct; do not bet.
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (+7.0): Predicting 25.2-20.6. Bet on the St. Louis Rams.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.0): Predicting 22.5-23.8. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+2.5): Predicting 25.5-23.2. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+4.0): Predicting 24.4-21.2. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-10.5): Predicting 18.6-30.5. Bet on the New England Patriots.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5): Predicting 20.0-25.3. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-4.5): Predicting 18.8-23.5. Bet on the Washington Redskins.

NFL Picks- Week 12 of 2015

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Bills at Chiefs line is not out yet. Recall that the model does not use injury information, so for the Monday night game between the Ravens and Browns, the model does not know that Flacco and Forsett are out for the season.

Overall Against the Spread: 71-66
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 8: 6-6 (2 pushes)
Week 9: 6-7
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 6-7 (1 push)

This Week’s Predictions (line in parentheses):
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (even): Predicting 23.2-22.3. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (even): Predicting 24.2-20.1. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10.0): Predicting 19.6-26.6. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-1.0): Predicting 19.9-22.9. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.0): Predicting 15.9-24.6. Bet on the St. Louis Rams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-3.0): Predicting 22.3-25.6. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (-3.0): Predicting 22.4-28.0. Bet on the Houston Texans.
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.0): Predicting 22.1-26.7. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (even): Predicting 20.3-26.0. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3.5): Predicting 19.4-25.4. Bet on the New York Jets.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (+1.0): Predicting 22.1-23.0. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1.0): Predicting 24.7-25.5. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+11.5): Predicting 28.0-19.7. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5): Predicting 19.8-22.4. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3.0): Predicting 23.5-21.5. Bet on the Denver Broncos.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5): Predicting 23.5-23.6. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.

Book Review- Creativity, Inc.

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Creativity, Inc.: Overcoming the Unseen Forces that Stand in the Way of True Inspiration
by Ed Catmull, with Amy Wallace, 2014

creativity-inc-ed-catmull

A combination biography/business advice book from the co-founder of Pixar and president of the Disney/Pixar Animation merger. Catmull describes his unending quest to promote creativity at Pixar and avoid the pitfalls that success can bring. I really like Pixar movies, which drove me to the book. I really like the advice given in the book, but wouldn’t suggest the book for those who want to read about the Pixar movies. Pixar is just the setting in which the advice is explained, and the amount of details and insights into the workings of animators is limited.

The last section offers a summary of the advice in the book, and is easily quotable:

Give a good idea to a mediocre team, and they will screw it up. Give a mediocre idea to a great team, and they will either fix it or come up with something better. If you get the team right, chances are that they’ll get the ideas right.

If there are people in your organization who feel they are not free to suggest ideas, you lose. Do not discount ideas from unexpected sources. Inspiration can, and does, come from anywhere.

Do not fall for the illusion that by preventing errors, you won’t have errors to fix. The truth is, the cost of preventing errors is often far greater than the cost of fixing them.

Don’t wait for things to be perfect before you share them with others. Show early and show often. It’ll be pretty when we get there, but it won’t be pretty along the way. And that’s as it should be.

Be wary of making too many rules. Rules can simplify life for managers, but they can be demeaning to the 95% who behave well. Don’t create rules to rein in the other 5%– address abuses of common sense individually. This is more work but ultimately healthier.

Don’t confuse the process with the goal. Working on our processes to make them better, easier, and more efficient is an indispensable activity and something ewe should continually work on– but it is not the goal. Making the product great is the goal.