“I am really superstitious,” Griffey said in an interview on MLB Network. “I have played in the Hall of Fame Game three times and I’ve never set foot in the building, I’ve never even seen the front of it. I’ve gone directly from the field to the hotel and the hotel to the bus and never looked at the front of it because the one time I wanted to go in there, I wanted to be a member of it.”
99.3%; almost everybody.
Bengals make the playoffs, but don’t get a bye and have to play the (expletive deleted) Steelers again. Oy. Model likes the Bengals more than Vegas does. All the games should be pretty close.
Overall Against the Spread: 120-107
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 8: 6-6 (2 pushes)
Week 9: 6-7
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 6-7 (1 push)
Week 12: 11-5
Week 13: 4-11 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 14: 7-7 (2 not bet due to correct line)
Week 15: 8-6 (2 pushes)
Week 16: 9-6 (1 push)
Week 17: 10-6
This Week’s Predictions (line in parentheses):
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+3.5): Predicting 20.7-20.3. Bet on the Houston Texans.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5): Predicting 20.9-24.8. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+5.5): Predicting 21.7-21.6. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-1.5): Predicting 22.1-23.6. Line is correct; do not bet.
Titans at Colts line is not out yet, still, Saturday afternoon, somehow. Will the Colts succeed in their 10 team parlay to make the playoffs?
Overall Against the Spread: 110-101
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 8: 6-6 (2 pushes)
Week 9: 6-7
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 6-7 (1 push)
Week 12: 11-5
Week 13: 4-11 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 14: 7-7 (2 not bet due to correct line)
Week 15: 8-6 (2 pushes)
Week 16: 9-6 (1 push)
This Week’s Predictions (line in parentheses):
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-4.0): Predicting 22.1-27.1. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+3.0): Predicting 21.7-23.2. Bet on the Buffalo Bills.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-11.5): Predicting 19.0-29.7. Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (even): Predicting 22.3-25.0. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.0): Predicting 17.4-27.6. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+11.5): Predicting 25.6-20.8. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (even): Predicting 19.7-24.8. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5): Predicting 20.9-21.2. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3.0): Predicting 20.3-23.2. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-7.0): Predicting 20.5-26.0. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5): Predicting 18.7-27.3. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+11.5): Predicting 26.4-20.7. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3.5): Predicting 23.7-28.2. Bet on the New York Giants.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-7.0): Predicting 21.1-27.0. Bet on the Seattle Seahawks.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10.0): Predicting 17.1-24.7. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+3.0): Predicting 19.3-18.9. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home
by Dan Ariely, 2010
Walking a tight line between memoir and research, this book manages to explain many of the impulses behind some of our irrational actions. We try harder when our work is meaningful to others. We go out of our way to punish people who didn’t act fairly. We become ineffective and risk-averse when offered big salaries and bonuses. We overvalue things we made with our own hands. We respond to specific pleas for aid but not to general ones. Ariely draws from his life experience, especially from a series of hospital events after he experienced a severe burn as a teenager, to motivate each idea. Much of the research presented involves simple laboratory experiments that attempt to distill the essence of emotions or choices out of complex issues. The results are fairly believable, with the caveat that real-world behavior is often much more complicated. Interesting read; I listened to it on tape. One downside of listening on tape was missing out on the referenced “figures” in the text, which was occasionally annoying.
Alisa Boguslavskaya, Crisson Jno-Charles, Maria, and I took a pre-Christmas holiday in Las Vegas last week. We stayed at Bally’s, mostly for its location in the middle of the strip (a fact which made life slightly difficult when this happened). We wandered both The Strip and Old town Vegas, went to three shows (Cirque de Soleil Ka, Vegas! The Show, and Nathan Burton’s Comedy Magic), ate a lot of food, saw the new Star Wars, and didn’t get arrested for card counting.
I was able to put some of my NFL betting model into practice. I familiarized myself with both Bally’s and Bellagio’s sports books, betting at the casino with the more favorable line for each game. Using these predictions, I bet on the 15 non-Monday night games of week 15. Unfortunately, with the lines offered at the times of betting, I ended up with 7 wins, 7 losses, and 1 push. With the casino’s built in edge (usually bet $110 to win $100), I ended up losing a little money. Could have easily ended up way up if the Sunday afternoon games hadn’t gone to hell in the second halves. Had I bet on the Monday night game, I would have won. I didn’t want to have to mail in a winning ticket (our flight out was during the game), however, so I didn’t bet. I also wanted to bet on the 5 or 6 college bowl games that were happening while we were there, but I didn’t get the data for the model together in time.
After the trip, Maria and I spent a few days with family for Christmas. We’re finally back in Bloomington today, after 12 days away. We will be having a New Year’s Eve party on Thursday at 8pm, so stop by!
Lines for Jags at Saints and Texans at Titans are not out yet (though it looks like the Texans/Titans should be close to even).
Overall Against the Spread: 101-95
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 8: 6-6 (2 pushes)
Week 9: 6-7
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 6-7 (1 push)
Week 12: 11-5
Week 13: 4-11 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 14: 7-7 (2 not bet due to correct line)
Week 15: 8-6 (2 pushes)
This Week’s Predictions (line in parentheses):
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-6.0): Predicting 21.1-25.4. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.0): Predicting 22.5-24.6. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+7.5): Predicting 25.8-21.7. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-7.0): Predicting 18.6-24.8. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-10.5): Predicting 18.6-24.3. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.0): Predicting 16.4-28.9. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-1.0): Predicting 21.5-24.5. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5): Predicting 21.5-25.4. Bet on the New York Giants.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (even): Predicting 26.3-27.9. Bet on the New Orleans Saints.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3.0): Predicting 23.7-23.1. Bet on the New York Jets.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (even): Predicting 20.8-20.8. Line is correct; do not bet.
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0): Predicting 22.1-24.6. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5): Predicting 20.8-27.1. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5): Predicting 15.8-25.5. Bet on the St. Louis Rams.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+11.5): Predicting 25.5-22.1. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.0): Predicting 21.1-21.1. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Smart Grid: Enabling Energy Efficiency and Demand Response
by Clark W. Gellings, 2009
While there is lots of domain knowledge in this book, it is just screaming out for a copy editor’s help. There is no flow to the book; no overall plan. It reads like a series of commissioned technical white papers strung together. Because I’m interested in both Energy Efficiency and Demand Response, I was just disappointed in the final result. Oh well, not recommended.
Colts line is not out because Hasselbeck is old.
Overall Against the Spread: 93-89
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 8: 6-6 (2 pushes)
Week 9: 6-7
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 6-7 (1 push)
Week 12: 11-5
Week 13: 4-11 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 14: 7-7 (2 not bet due to correct line)
This Week’s Predictions (line in parentheses):
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-1.5): Predicting 19.0-21.8. Bet on the St. Louis Rams.
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (+3.0): Predicting 21.7-19.9. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (even): Predicting 21.7-22.7. Bet on the Indianapolis Colts.
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.0): Predicting 22.7-25.8. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5): Predicting 19.1-23.7. Bet on the Chicago Bears.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-15.5): Predicting 17.1-29.6. Bet on the Tennessee Titans.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (+5.0): Predicting 26.9-23.9. Bet on the New York Giants.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5): Predicting 26.8-23.0. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (+8.5): Predicting 24.4-21.0. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.
Buffalo Bills at Washington Redskins (even): Predicting 22.5-23.2. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Green Bay Packers at Oakland Raiders (+3.0): Predicting 23.5-23.0. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks (-16.0): Predicting 16.6-29.4. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.0): Predicting 18.9-23.6. Bet on the Denver Broncos.
Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-1.0): Predicting 21.2-23.7. Bet on the San Diego Chargers.
Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers (+4.5): Predicting 23.9-17.4. Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-3.0): Predicting 24.6-26.9. Bet on the Detroit Lions.
Water 4.0: The Past, Present, and Future of the World’s Most Vital Resource
by David Sedlak, 2014
Interesting book about the history of water management, but I’m not sure if I buy the picture of the future. The first water revolution was Rome installing aqueducts to import freshwater to a city without enough of its own water. The second water revolution was chlorine and other treatments to disinfect tap water. The third water revolution was treating sewage water prior to releasing it to the wild or re-using it. The book argues that scarcity of water and climate change are pushing us to a fourth revolution, which may be true. However, I’m not sure if I buy these possible steps forward (the second option seeming especially unlikely):
In terms of water supply, the first version of Water 4.0 will look a lot like the upgraded, centralized systems that are emerging in Singapore and the water-stressed cities of Southern California, Australia, and Israel. As part of this approach, imported water will be supplemented or replaced by desalination and potable water recycling employed in conjunction with a full arsenal of policies designed to incentivize water conservation. Waste treatment will also look a lot different in this version of Water 4.0: centralized sewage treatment plants will evolve from a means of protecting surface waters from pollution to systems that recover water, energy, and nutrients from sewage…
The other version of Water 4.0 takes a more radical approach to urban water by pushing the responsibility for acquisition, treatment, and management of water back to the individual household or neighborhood. In the distributed version of Water 4.0, a shift in public attitudes will make it possible to reduce consumptive water use by around 75% through the installation of ultraefficient appliances and elimination of wasteful forms of outdoor water use. In the distributed water future, landscape irrigation with drinking water will be unthinkable, and rooftop rainwater collection tanks, rain gardens, and household wells will be common features of housing developments. In areas where the conditions are right, housing developments will operate without help from the expensive and difficult-to-maintain centralized water infrastructure…
Can you imagine relying upon your shoddy apartment management company or home owner’s association to supply you with drinking water? Sounds problematic.