What Every Body is Saying
by Joe Navarro, with Marvin Karlins, Ph.D., 2008
An interesting view into nonverbal behavior. Only about half of the book is obvious, which is impressive. Lots of interesting tidbits to look for in everyday interactions. Quick read.
Line for Tennessee/Houston is not out yet.
Overall Against the Spread: 43-42
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 6-7 (1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 7 Predictions (line in parentheses):
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-8.5): Predicting 21.2-32.2. Bet on the New England Patriots.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5): Predicting 20.5-31.4. Bet on the Atlanta Falcons.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (even): Predicting 22.7-20.1. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (+4.5): Predicting 28.7-22.1. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (even): Predicting 21.6-23.7. Bet on the Houston Texans.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-3.0): Predicting 23.0-24.9. Bet on the New York Giants.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (even): Predicting 21.9-22.4. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (-9.5): Predicting 14.7-23.7. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.0): Predicting 23.7-28.8. Bet on the Baltimore Ravens.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+2.5): Predicting 24.0-21.0. Bet on the New York Jets.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (+7.0): Predicting 21.9-20.0. Bet on the Dallas Cowboys.
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+3.0): Predicting 19.9-21.7. Bet on the Denver Broncos.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5): Predicting 20.7-27.9. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (-7.5): Predicting 17.3-27.2. Bet on the Carolina Panthers.
I know I’m about 10 days late to this article, but it is fantastic:
53 Minutes of Madness in Toronto: An Oral History of the ALDS Inning That Broke Baseball
It’s a retelling of the game that went crazy, starting with this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZ3h4O2VNsw
It’s good that no one is around in the office right now, because I could not stop laughing at the last gif. Excellent.
Sports like to change their rules lately.
I already knew about the NFL changing the extra point kick distance to punish good kicking.
I already knew about NCAA basketball moving to a 30 second shot clock and getting rid of the 5 second on-ball defending turnover.
I just learned about hockey moving to 3 on 3 overtimes to encourage scoring via more open space on the ice. Looks crazy. Not going to get to shootouts too often anymore.
Fans are going to love it and the forwards are going to love it. Goalies and ‘D’? Maybe not as much.
Another group that might not like it? Sports researchers. As someone who often uses multiple years of data to make a point, I’ll just say that changing the rules makes analysis difficult. Stop doing it so often.
The more things change, the less they stay the same.
Update (10/23/15): Steelers/Chiefs line is now out.
Overall Against the Spread: 37-35
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 5-6 (2 pushes, 1 not bet due to correct line)
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7 Predictions (line in parentheses):
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5): Predicting 22.6-20.2. Bet on the San Francisco 49ers.
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5): Predicting 21.7-24.8. Bet on the New Orleans Saints.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+2.5): Predicting 22.0-20.2. Bet on the Detroit Lions.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.0): Predicting 23.8-20.1. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-4.0): Predicting 19.4-25.0. Bet on the Miami Dolphins.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.0): Predicting 22.0-28.2. Bet on the New York Jets.
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans (+4.0): Predicting 28.0-24.0. Line is correct; do not bet.
Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams (-5.5): Predicting 20.8-24.3. Bet on the Cleveland Browns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-3.0): Predicting 19.8-27.5. Bet on the Washington Redskins.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-4.0): Predicting 22.1-25.5. Bet on the Oakland Raiders.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-3.0): Predicting 19.7-25.2. Bet on the New York Giants.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.0): Predicting 20.6-22.7. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.0): Predicting 25.3-21.4. Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals (-9.0): Predicting 21.3-32.4. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals.
Cool trading simulation game from Bloomberg.
Antitrust Legislation related to DirecTV Sunday Ticket.
Energy Efficiency savings in Ohio. It is interesting that they sometimes compensate $.05-.10 per kWh of forgone energy usage.
The Colts ran one of the worst plays in NFL history on Sunday. Perhaps you saw it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrtzpdH_uPM
This Grantland article has a good discussion of the play. I particularly like the conclusion:
That, combined with the significant likelihood that Whalen was instructed not to snap the football, is why I can’t get onboard with the idea that the decision to try the fake punt should get Chuck Pagano fired, even if Pagano took the blame afterward. (Indeed, Pagano could be seen after the play saying something to the effect of “Why did you snap the ball?”) The game wasn’t quite a lost cause, but coaches make routinely worse decisions on a weekly basis; Jim Caldwell’s decision to kick a field goal down seven points late in the fourth quarter in Detroit, for one, was patently worse. Pagano’s play call was questionable, but it was the execution of the Snapfu that was truly dreadful.
I remember saying “why did the Lions just kick a field goal? What the… ” on Sunday, as well.