Monthly Archives: June 2014

Theory Thursday- Little’s Law

Little’s Law or Little’s Formula is a way to relate the average length of a queue and the average waiting time in a queue. It was proved by John Little in 1960 while Little was at the Case Institute of Technology. The paper proving the result is one of the most cited in the field of Operations Research.

Let W be the average time a customer spends waiting in a queue. Let L be the average length of the queue. Let \lambda be the arrival rate to the queue—the average number of people that arrive per unit time. Then the three quantities can be related by the simple formula L= \lambda W.

This result holds no matter the arrival process (Poisson, deterministic, etc.), the service process (Poisson, deterministic, etc.), the queueing discipline (first come first served, last in first out, etc.), and the number of servers. It also holds for total time in the system, if you instead use L_s and W_s as the average number of people in the system –combining those in queue and those in service—and the average time in system, respectively. L_s= \lambda W_s.

An Ode to Subjective Power Rankings

power rankings

Any good standings page has a wealth of objective team information. Season wins/losses. Points scored for/against. Record in the last 10 games. Games behind first place. Etc.

What purpose do “Power Rankings” serve on top of objective standings? Some experts watched the sport and decided that a team was perhaps outperforming its record? They had some witty comment to make for a few teams and decided to go ahead and try to right something down for all the teams?

Experts aren’t very accurate in their predictions. Power rankings are no exception to this rule. I choose not to read power rankings any more. The very occasional witty comment is overwhelmed by the mass of obvious/rehashed observations that make up the power rankings commentary. This is part of a general trend in me listening to ESPN less and less and looking at actual performance data more and more.

Theory Tuesday- Prospect Theory

Prospect Theory, created by Kahneman and Tversky, is a way to quantify utility functions for people. In traditional economics, a dollar is a dollar and people are expected to maximize their wealth. In reality, people have biases. The two major biases shown in prospect theory are diminishing sensitivity and loss aversion.

Diminishing sensitivity makes people notice $1 changes in their wealth less the farther that they get from their reference point. $1 means a lot more to someone who is close to breaking even than to someone else who has already made a million dollars.

Loss aversion refers to the fact that people feel losses more strongly than equal sized gains. A loss of $100, relative to your reference point, feels worse than a gain of $100 feels good.

The effects can be seen in the following pictures. (a) isolates diminishing sensitivity and (b) isolates loss aversion. Their combined effects are shown in (c).

RplotAllThree

Two Links Tuesday- June 3, 2014

ACM Web Science 2014 Conference at IU. This conference is coming to Bloomington June 23-26. It is a single-track conference that is a little far afield from what I usually study, but I plan to try to sneak in nonetheless. If you want to come with me and cause a diversion while I sneak in, that would be appreciated.

How far your paycheck goes in various cities. How is Bloomington the poorest city (via median income) in the country? That doesn’t seem right. Are they counting in all the part-time students income? I think Bloomington is about 40k students and about 40k permanent residents, so the median might get significantly pushed down by including all the part-time students.

Life Tips- Bouncy Ball Chair

Your desk job is slowly killing you. Sitting all day in a chair is bad. Bad for posture, bad for health. While there are many possible solutions, I’m trying out sitting on a 75” stability exercise ball (bouncy ball for short) this summer.

bouncy ball

At first, it was uncomfortable and made my lower back tired with all the balancing. A week in, however, I don’t feel any pain and really enjoy the alternative chair. My hope is that the balancing and bouncing eliminate some of the effects of sitting all day. Even if they don’t, it is undeniable that I am more active with a bouncy ball chair. Being active is good. I use a weighted, stable ball that doesn’t roll away when I get up. If all goes well, I will use the chair when I move back to my school office in the fall. Maria uses a bouncy ball chair at her job at IU as well.

Code Monkey Monday- Eclipse and PyDev

If you program in Python, you’ll eventually want to use a development environment. Eclipse is a well-known IDE (integrated development environment) for Java programming. You can co-opt Eclipse to use with Python by using PyDev.

Download Eclipse, saving it to your desktop. I don’t install it to my C: drive or anything; I’m not even sure if you can do that. Download PyDev. Drag the folders “features” and “plugins” to your Eclipse folder, thus merging the contents of the PyDev folders and the Eclipse folders. Open Eclipse and select a working directory. In Eclipse, goto Window->Open Perspective and PyDev should be listed there. Open it up and now you’ll be able to program in Python in Eclipse and run Python programs in Eclipse.